Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on the Distribution of Endangered and Endemic Changnienia amoena (Orchidaceae) Using Ensemble Modeling and Gap Analysis in China

IF 2.3 2区 生物学 Q2 ECOLOGY
Ting Liu, Hanwei Cai, Guangfu Zhang
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Abstract

Climate change has significant impacts on the distribution of orchids. The endemic and endangered orchids are more susceptible to climate change than widely distributed orchids. To date, little is known concerning the response of endangered Changnienia amoena, endemic to China, to different climate scenarios. Here, we build an ensemble model comprising random forest model, maximum entropy model, and gradient boosting model in Biomod2 package to project its potential distribution in China, evaluate its current protective effectiveness, and identify its conservation gaps in China by determining the C. amoena population range within the natural protected areas. The outcomes showed that the four key environmental factors influencing its distribution were mean diurnal temperature range, minimum temperature of the coldest month, temperature seasonality, and precipitation of the warmest quarter. This orchid was currently distributed mainly in southern Anhui, central and western Hubei, western Hunan, southern Shaanxi, and eastern Sichuan province. The total suitable area of C. amoena was 58.33 × 104 km2, only accounting for 6.08% of China's total territory, which is larger than known. However, only 4.48% of the suitable area is located within national nature reserves and 3.33% within provincial nature reserves, respectively. During the last inter glacial and mid-holocene, its suitable areas were larger than the current. Under six future climate scenarios, its suitable areas may decrease averagely by 2.26% relative to the current, with severe habitat fragmentation. Collectively, the centroid of C. amoena is expected to shift towards the southeast in the future. Therefore, our findings demonstrate that climate change has an adverse effect on its potential distribution. We recommend expanding protected areas or establishing new conservation sites for C. amoena in China. Furthermore, our study can help to inform the development of conservation management strategies for other endangered Chinese endemic orchids under climate change.

利用集合建模和差距分析评估气候变化对中国濒危和特有的兰科植物长春花分布的影响
气候变化对兰花的分布有重大影响。与分布广泛的兰花相比,特有和濒危兰花更容易受到气候变化的影响。迄今为止,人们对中国特有的濒危兰科植物长春花对不同气候情景的响应知之甚少。在此,我们在Biomod2软件包中建立了一个由随机森林模型、最大熵模型和梯度提升模型组成的集合模型,以预测其在中国的潜在分布,评估其目前的保护效果,并通过确定自然保护区内的昌霓裳种群范围来确定其在中国的保护缺口。研究结果表明,影响其分布的四个关键环境因素是平均昼夜温差、最冷月最低气温、气温季节性和最暖季度降水量。这种兰花目前主要分布在安徽南部、湖北中西部、湖南西部、陕西南部和四川东部。鹤望兰适宜分布的总面积为 58.33×104 平方公里,仅占中国领土总面积的 6.08%,比已知面积大。然而,仅有 4.48% 的适宜面积位于国家级自然保护区内,3.33% 的适宜面积位于省级自然保护区内。在上一个冰期和全新世中期,其适宜面积大于现在。在未来六种气候情景下,其适宜面积可能比现在平均减少 2.26%,栖息地破碎化严重。总之,预计未来C. amoena的中心点将向东南方向移动。因此,我们的研究结果表明,气候变化对其潜在分布有不利影响。我们建议在中国扩大保护区或建立新的金丝猴保护地。此外,我们的研究还有助于为气候变化下其他中国特有濒危兰科植物的保护管理策略的制定提供参考。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
4.40
自引率
3.80%
发文量
1027
审稿时长
3-6 weeks
期刊介绍: Ecology and Evolution is the peer reviewed journal for rapid dissemination of research in all areas of ecology, evolution and conservation science. The journal gives priority to quality research reports, theoretical or empirical, that develop our understanding of organisms and their diversity, interactions between them, and the natural environment. Ecology and Evolution gives prompt and equal consideration to papers reporting theoretical, experimental, applied and descriptive work in terrestrial and aquatic environments. The journal will consider submissions across taxa in areas including but not limited to micro and macro ecological and evolutionary processes, characteristics of and interactions between individuals, populations, communities and the environment, physiological responses to environmental change, population genetics and phylogenetics, relatedness and kin selection, life histories, systematics and taxonomy, conservation genetics, extinction, speciation, adaption, behaviour, biodiversity, species abundance, macroecology, population and ecosystem dynamics, and conservation policy.
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