Shorter Ice Duration and Changing Phenology Influence Under-Ice Lake Temperature Dynamics

Abstract

Temperate lakes worldwide are losing ice cover but the implications for under-ice thermal dynamics are poorly constrained. Using a 92-year record of ice phenology from a temperate and historically dimictic lake, we examined trends, variability, and drivers of ice phenology and under-ice temperatures. The onset of ice formation decreased by 23 days century⁻¹, which can be largely attributed to warming air temperatures. Ice-off date has become substantially more variable with spring air temperatures and cumulative February through April snowfall explaining over 80% of the variation in timing. As a result of changing ice phenology, total ice duration contracted by a month and more than doubled in interannual variability. Using weekly under-ice temperature profiles for the most recent 36 years, we found that shorter ice duration decreased winter inverse stratification and was associated with an extended spring mixing period. We illustrate the limitations of relying on discrete ice clearance dates in our assumptions around under-ice thermal dynamics by presenting high-frequency under-ice observations in two recent winters: one with intermittent ice cover and a year with slow spring ice clearance.