A copula-based whole system model to understand the environmental and economic impacts of grid-scale energy storage

IF 10.1 1区工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS

Applied Energy Pub Date : 2024-11-26 DOI:10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.124935

Fan He , Matthew Leach , Michael Short , Yurui Fan , Lirong Liu

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Abstract

Energy storage is important in future power systems. However, the role of grid-scale energy storage in the power system and in the whole socio-economic system is unclear. A copula-based whole system model is developed to explore the economic and environmental effects of grid-scale energy storage, thus supporting the decision-making at micro and macro levels. A power system optimisation model is linked with an input-output model, and the copula function is embedded in the model to reflect the multiple and interactive uncertainties from electricity demand, emission constraints, and sector disaggregation. We conducted case studies on China and the UK in 2025 considering different storage technologies (Pumped hydro, Battery, Flywheels storage) to show the differences related with power systems and economic structures. We find that increasing energy storage capacity leads to increase in renewable generation capacity (solar generation in China and wind generation in the UK). Thus, it can reduce their total economy-wide carbon emissions. Uncertainty in sector disaggregation will have a large impact on carbon emissions in some extreme cases, especially in those sectors closely linked to the power sector and with high emission intensity.

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基于 copula 的全系统模型，用于了解电网规模储能对环境和经济的影响

储能在未来的电力系统中非常重要。然而，电网储能在电力系统和整个社会经济系统中的作用尚不明确。我们开发了一个基于 copula 的全系统模型，以探索电网规模储能的经济和环境影响，从而为微观和宏观层面的决策提供支持。将电力系统优化模型与投入产出模型联系起来，并在模型中嵌入 copula 函数，以反映来自电力需求、排放限制和部门分类的多重交互式不确定性。我们对 2025 年的中国和英国进行了案例研究，考虑了不同的储能技术（抽水蓄能、电池储能、飞轮储能），以显示与电力系统和经济结构相关的差异。我们发现，增加储能容量会导致可再生能源发电量的增加（中国的太阳能发电量和英国的风力发电量）。因此，这可以减少整个经济的碳排放总量。在某些极端情况下，行业分类的不确定性将对碳排放产生巨大影响，尤其是那些与电力行业密切相关且排放强度较高的行业。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Applied Energy 工程技术-工程：化工

CiteScore

21.20

自引率

10.70%

发文量

1830

审稿时长

41 days

期刊介绍： Applied Energy serves as a platform for sharing innovations, research, development, and demonstrations in energy conversion, conservation, and sustainable energy systems. The journal covers topics such as optimal energy resource use, environmental pollutant mitigation, and energy process analysis. It welcomes original papers, review articles, technical notes, and letters to the editor. Authors are encouraged to submit manuscripts that bridge the gap between research, development, and implementation. The journal addresses a wide spectrum of topics, including fossil and renewable energy technologies, energy economics, and environmental impacts. Applied Energy also explores modeling and forecasting, conservation strategies, and the social and economic implications of energy policies, including climate change mitigation. It is complemented by the open-access journal Advances in Applied Energy.