Using dynamic release modeling to predict historic and current macro- and microplastic releases

IF 11.2 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL

Resources Conservation and Recycling Pub Date : 2024-11-25 DOI:10.1016/j.resconrec.2024.108011

Zipeng Liu , Bernd Nowack

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Abstract

Confronting the pervasive challenge of plastic pollution, our study pioneers a dynamic release model to quantify the historic and current plastic emissions. Utilizing Dynamic Probabilistic Material Flow Analysis (DPMFA) coupled to a release model, we comprehensively tracked emissions of macro- and microplastics in Switzerland from 1950 to 2022, covering 35 product categories and 183 release pathways for seven polymers (LDPE, HDPE, PP, PS, EPS, PVC, PET). The plastic usage exhibited a “Peak Plastic” around the year 2010 with a subsequent decrease in per capita use of plastics from 120±5 to 107±5 kg/cap in 2022. Over the considered timeframe, 27±1 kg/cap of macroplastics and 4 ± 1 kg/cap of microplastics were released to the environment, with the most substantial contributions coming from LDPE and PET. The overall emission factor was 0.66±0.07 % for macroplastics and 0.010±0.01 % for microplastics. The model can provide a crucial framework for crafting targeted interventions toward sustainable plastic lifecycle management.

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利用动态释放模型预测历史和当前的大型和微型塑料释放量

面对无处不在的塑料污染挑战，我们的研究开创性地采用动态释放模型来量化历史和当前的塑料排放量。利用动态概率物质流分析法（DPMFA）和释放模型，我们全面跟踪了瑞士从 1950 年到 2022 年宏观和微观塑料的排放情况，涵盖了七种聚合物（低密度聚乙烯、高密度聚乙烯、聚丙烯、聚苯乙烯、发泡聚苯乙烯、聚氯乙烯、聚对苯二甲酸乙二酯）的 35 种产品类别和 183 种释放途径。塑料用量在 2010 年左右达到 "塑料峰值"，随后人均塑料用量从 120±5 公斤/瓶下降到 2022 年的 107±5 公斤/瓶。在考虑的时间范围内，27±1 千克/瓶盖的大型塑料和 4±1 千克/瓶盖的微型塑料被释放到环境中，其中低密度聚乙烯和 PET 的贡献最大。大塑料的总体排放系数为 0.66±0.07 %，微塑料的总体排放系数为 0.010±0.01 %。该模型为制定有针对性的干预措施以实现可持续塑料生命周期管理提供了重要框架。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Resources Conservation and Recycling 环境科学-工程：环境

CiteScore

22.90

自引率

6.10%

发文量

625

审稿时长

23 days

期刊介绍： The journal Resources, Conservation & Recycling welcomes contributions from research, which consider sustainable management and conservation of resources. The journal prioritizes understanding the transformation processes crucial for transitioning toward more sustainable production and consumption systems. It highlights technological, economic, institutional, and policy aspects related to specific resource management practices such as conservation, recycling, and resource substitution, as well as broader strategies like improving resource productivity and restructuring production and consumption patterns. Contributions may address regional, national, or international scales and can range from individual resources or technologies to entire sectors or systems. Authors are encouraged to explore scientific and methodological issues alongside practical, environmental, and economic implications. However, manuscripts focusing solely on laboratory experiments without discussing their broader implications will not be considered for publication in the journal.