Monitoring changes in walkability over time: An environmental exposure change detection framework with implications for equity and social justice

Abstract

Evidence suggests that walkability and greenspace impact travel related activity patterns and vehicle emissions which affect sustainability, public health, and equity. Resulting levels of physical activity, active, or sedentary travel time impact obesity, diabetes, and heart disease which impact COVID-19 mortality. It is now possible to track changes in locally controlled land use characteristics known to impact sustainability and health. This information can provide decisionmakers with feedback required to spatially prioritize and better link state and nationally funded transportation investments with locally sanctioned land use actions. Linking the achievement of established benchmarks of health equity-based indicators with funding establishes a more performance-based approach connecting land use with transportation investment. This study longitudinally tracks neighborhood-level walkability features at the census tract level for 2013 and 2020 for the entire USA. Longitudinal volatility-based change detection models are developed to examine how changes in walkability over time correlate with racialization and social justice. Walkability tends to increase over time with significant variations across metro regions and the urban-rural continuum. Largest and smallest increases in walkability were observed in Western Pacific and Northwest states, respectively. Increased racial and social justice disparities were observed in access to more walkable infrastructure by marginalized populations (such as less-educated, older, unemployed, and black individuals). Significant heterogeneity in the spatial distribution of walkability was observed, over the variation captured by observed sociodemographic, regional, and urban/rural factors. The findings highlight the potential for an “environmental surveillance” system to support a “performance-based” approach to transportation funding that prioritizes resource allocation consistent with Justice40 and United Nation's Sustainable Development Goals.