{"title":"Urbanization effects on temperature: 1826–1850","authors":"Donald F. Vitaliano","doi":"10.1016/j.uclim.2024.102196","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Mean, minimum and maximum monthly temperatures for 58 stations in New York State covering the period 1826–1850 are used to estimate a random effects panel regression. Controlling for latitude, elevation and seasonality, a statistically significant positive effect of population on minimum temperature is detected. At the mean population of 8500, the estimated effect is 0.19 °F (0.105 °C), which is consistent with published estimates for later periods. Mean and maximum temperature effects are +0.06 °F (+0.033 °C) and − 0.05 °F (−0.027 °C), respectively, but are not statistically significant. Microclimate and other unmeasured weather station heterogeneity is captured as a random ‘effects’ distribution variable, a novel treatment. Heat island effects appear to exist at very low levels of population when energy was based on animals and water power, perhaps due to loss of greenspace. Based on these results urbanization could contribute as much as 27.5 % to 41 % of the centennial temperature rise in New York.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48626,"journal":{"name":"Urban Climate","volume":"58 ","pages":"Article 102196"},"PeriodicalIF":6.0000,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Urban Climate","FirstCategoryId":"5","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212095524003936","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Mean, minimum and maximum monthly temperatures for 58 stations in New York State covering the period 1826–1850 are used to estimate a random effects panel regression. Controlling for latitude, elevation and seasonality, a statistically significant positive effect of population on minimum temperature is detected. At the mean population of 8500, the estimated effect is 0.19 °F (0.105 °C), which is consistent with published estimates for later periods. Mean and maximum temperature effects are +0.06 °F (+0.033 °C) and − 0.05 °F (−0.027 °C), respectively, but are not statistically significant. Microclimate and other unmeasured weather station heterogeneity is captured as a random ‘effects’ distribution variable, a novel treatment. Heat island effects appear to exist at very low levels of population when energy was based on animals and water power, perhaps due to loss of greenspace. Based on these results urbanization could contribute as much as 27.5 % to 41 % of the centennial temperature rise in New York.
期刊介绍:
Urban Climate serves the scientific and decision making communities with the publication of research on theory, science and applications relevant to understanding urban climatic conditions and change in relation to their geography and to demographic, socioeconomic, institutional, technological and environmental dynamics and global change. Targeted towards both disciplinary and interdisciplinary audiences, this journal publishes original research papers, comprehensive review articles, book reviews, and short communications on topics including, but not limited to, the following:
Urban meteorology and climate[...]
Urban environmental pollution[...]
Adaptation to global change[...]
Urban economic and social issues[...]
Research Approaches[...]