The significant influence of the sea surface temperature anomalies over North Atlantic and the Maritime Continent on maize yield in Northeast China

IF 4.5 2区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
Sichao Yan , Huopo Chen
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Abstract

Northeastern China (NEC) is the largest grain base in China. Improving understanding of the effect of climate change on grain production over NEC is conducive to providing immediate response strategies for grain production. In this study, the relationships of the maize production with the dry state during the different maize growth stage have been investigated using the year-to-year increment method. Results showed that the severe drought that occurred from the jointing to maturity period have exerted severe effects on the maize growth. Further analysis indicated that the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over North Atlantic and Maritime Continent in later spring are the important factors affecting the summer droughts over NEC. The late spring SST anomaly over North Atlantic can excite the Rossby waves from the western North Atlantic and propagate eastward to NEC. The snow anomaly over western Siberia in late spring and the soil moisture anomaly over NEC in summer are key factors linking the SST anomaly to drought over the NEC. On the other hand, the Maritime Continent SST anomaly in late spring can modulate the activity of the East Asian jet stream via the East Asia-Pacific (EAP) teleconnection, which can provide the favorable conditions for the soil moisture reduction over NEC. Eventually, a predictive model for maize yield over NEC is successfully developed by using the predictive indices of the North Atlantic and the Maritime Continental SST during late spring. Both the cross-validation and independent sample tests show that the calibrated prediction model is robust and exhibits high skill in predicting maize yield over NEC.

Abstract Image

北大西洋和海洋大陆海面温度异常对中国东北地区玉米产量的显著影响
中国东北地区(NEC)是中国最大的粮食基地。进一步了解气候变化对东北地区粮食生产的影响,有利于为粮食生产提供及时的应对策略。本研究采用逐年递增法研究了玉米不同生长阶段玉米产量与干旱状态的关系。结果表明,从拔节期到成熟期发生的严重干旱对玉米生长造成了严重影响。进一步分析表明,北大西洋和海洋大陆春末海面温度(SST)异常是影响北大西洋和海洋大陆夏季干旱的重要因素。北大西洋晚春的海面温度异常会激发北大西洋西部的罗斯比波,并向东传播到北欧大陆。春末西伯利亚西部的积雪异常和夏季北欧委地区的土壤水分异常是将海温异常与北欧委地区干旱联系起来的关键因素。另一方面,春末的海洋大陆 SST 异常可通过东亚-太平洋(EAP)远程联系调节东亚喷流的活动,从而为 NEC 土壤水分减少提供有利条件。最终,利用晚春北大西洋和海洋大陆 SST 的预测指数,成功建立了 NEC 玉米产量预测模型。交叉验证和独立样本测试表明,校准后的预测模型是稳健的,在预测北欧大陆玉米产量方面表现出较高的技能。
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来源期刊
Atmospheric Research
Atmospheric Research 地学-气象与大气科学
CiteScore
9.40
自引率
10.90%
发文量
460
审稿时长
47 days
期刊介绍: The journal publishes scientific papers (research papers, review articles, letters and notes) dealing with the part of the atmosphere where meteorological events occur. Attention is given to all processes extending from the earth surface to the tropopause, but special emphasis continues to be devoted to the physics of clouds, mesoscale meteorology and air pollution, i.e. atmospheric aerosols; microphysical processes; cloud dynamics and thermodynamics; numerical simulation, climatology, climate change and weather modification.
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