Urban resilience assessment and multi-scenario simulation: A case study of three major urban agglomerations in China

IF 9.8 1区社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Environmental Impact Assessment Review Pub Date : 2024-11-23 DOI:10.1016/j.eiar.2024.107734

Yi Xiao , Haonan Yang , Liang Chen , Huan Huang , Ming Chang

{"title":"Urban resilience assessment and multi-scenario simulation: A case study of three major urban agglomerations in China","authors":"Yi Xiao , Haonan Yang , Liang Chen , Huan Huang , Ming Chang","doi":"10.1016/j.eiar.2024.107734","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Assessing and mitigating the adverse impacts of hazard shocks on urban is of paramount importance for cities to effectively enhance resilience and strive for sustainable development. This research employs an “Economic-Ecological-Infrastructure-Social-Institutional” (EEISI) evaluation framework to assess urban resilience (UR) of three major urban agglomerations. It analyzes their coordinated development levels among subsystems, examines spatial and temporal variation characteristics of critical influencing factors, and predicts UR under various scenarios. The results show that the UR of most cities exhibits a rapid increase, and the UR of cities in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) is remarkably ahead of the rest of the urban agglomerations. The consumption level, industrial structure, emergency shelter area, and government investment in science and education play a pivotal role in UR enhancement, and there are significant dynamic fluctuations in spatial and temporal dimensions among them. Furthermore, the prediction results for UR show an overall upward trend, and the optimal growth rate for the critical influencing factors is around 2 %. In this scenario, when factors increase by 1 %, UR increases by approximately 0.1728 %. These findings will provide management with decision-making information and references for scientific planning and optimization of urban agglomerations' functional layouts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":309,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Impact Assessment Review","volume":"111 ","pages":"Article 107734"},"PeriodicalIF":9.8000,"publicationDate":"2024-11-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Environmental Impact Assessment Review","FirstCategoryId":"90","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0195925524003214","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Abstract

Assessing and mitigating the adverse impacts of hazard shocks on urban is of paramount importance for cities to effectively enhance resilience and strive for sustainable development. This research employs an “Economic-Ecological-Infrastructure-Social-Institutional” (EEISI) evaluation framework to assess urban resilience (UR) of three major urban agglomerations. It analyzes their coordinated development levels among subsystems, examines spatial and temporal variation characteristics of critical influencing factors, and predicts UR under various scenarios. The results show that the UR of most cities exhibits a rapid increase, and the UR of cities in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) is remarkably ahead of the rest of the urban agglomerations. The consumption level, industrial structure, emergency shelter area, and government investment in science and education play a pivotal role in UR enhancement, and there are significant dynamic fluctuations in spatial and temporal dimensions among them. Furthermore, the prediction results for UR show an overall upward trend, and the optimal growth rate for the critical influencing factors is around 2 %. In this scenario, when factors increase by 1 %, UR increases by approximately 0.1728 %. These findings will provide management with decision-making information and references for scientific planning and optimization of urban agglomerations' functional layouts.

查看原文本刊更多论文

城市复原力评估与多情景模拟：中国三大城市群案例研究

评估和减轻灾害冲击对城市的不利影响，对于城市有效提高抗灾能力和努力实现可持续发展至关重要。本研究采用 "经济-生态-基础设施-社会-制度"（EEISI）评估框架，对三个主要城市群的城市抗灾能力（UR）进行评估。它分析了各子系统之间的协调发展水平，研究了关键影响因素的时空变化特征，并预测了各种情景下的城市韧性。研究结果表明，大多数城市的城市发展水平呈快速上升趋势，珠江三角洲（PRD）城市的城市发展水平明显领先于其他城市群。消费水平、产业结构、应急避难场所面积、政府科教投入等因素对 UR 的提升起着举足轻重的作用，且在时空维度上存在显著的动态波动。此外，UR 的预测结果显示总体呈上升趋势，关键影响因素的最佳增长率约为 2%。在这种情况下，当因素增长 1 % 时，UR 增长约 0.1728 %。这些研究结果将为管理部门科学规划和优化城市群功能布局提供决策信息和参考。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

求助全文

约1分钟内获得全文求助全文

来源期刊

Environmental Impact Assessment Review ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES-

CiteScore

12.60

自引率

10.10%

发文量

200

审稿时长

33 days

期刊介绍： Environmental Impact Assessment Review is an interdisciplinary journal that serves a global audience of practitioners, policymakers, and academics involved in assessing the environmental impact of policies, projects, processes, and products. The journal focuses on innovative theory and practice in environmental impact assessment (EIA). Papers are expected to present innovative ideas, be topical, and coherent. The journal emphasizes concepts, methods, techniques, approaches, and systems related to EIA theory and practice.