Driving forces of grass-livestock balance shifted from human activities to climate change on the top of the earth

IF 6 1区 农林科学 Q1 AGRICULTURE, MULTIDISCIPLINARY
Yuxi Wang , Haijuan Wei , Lin Zhang
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Abstract

Climate change and intensive grazing are threatening key functions of grassland ecosystems, including biodiversity, soil retention, and supporting pastoralist livelihoods. However, where and to what extent these factors impact grassland ecological balance on the top of the earth remained unclear. This study focused on the alpine grassland ecosystems in and around the Mount Qomolangma National Nature Reserve (MQNNR), coupled with remote sensing and socio-economic data to evaluate the state of grass-livestock balance during 2000–2019, and revealed the actual contributions of climate, soil attributes, and human activities to the grassland carrying capacity (GCC) changes by employing ridge regression and structural equation modeling. The results showed that the multiyear mean grass-livestock pressure index (GLPI) for the study area was 0.62, indicating that the grasslands generally provided sufficient forage for livestock. However, 21.5 % of the area remained at risk of overgrazing, predominantly in valley regions with high human activity. During 2000–2019, approximately 42.3 % of the region experienced a significant increase in GCC, notably in Ngamring, Tingri, and Dinggye. Post-2007, the makeable improvement in GCC was accompanied by a gradual decline in the actual stocking rate, which further alleviated grazing pressure. Furthermore, climate change, soil conditions, and population pressure were the primary drivers of GCC changes, and their contributions to GCC rise/declined area differed significantly across time. Over time, the dominant factors influencing GCC change trend in more than 85 % of the study regions have shifted from human activities to climatic factors, especially the positive contribution from better moisture conditions. This study provides new insights for grassland management and sustainable development, aiding in addressing grassland ecological problems and safeguarding the well-being of pastoral communities and ecological security.
地球表面草畜平衡的驱动力从人类活动转向气候变化
气候变化和密集放牧正在威胁着草原生态系统的主要功能,包括生物多样性、土壤保持和支持牧民生计。然而,这些因素在哪里以及在多大程度上影响着地球之巅的草地生态平衡仍不清楚。本研究以珠穆朗玛峰国家级自然保护区(MQNNR)及其周边的高寒草地生态系统为研究对象,结合遥感和社会经济数据,评估了2000-2019年间草畜平衡状况,并通过山脊回归和结构方程模型揭示了气候、土壤属性和人类活动对草地承载力(GCC)变化的实际贡献。结果表明,研究区域的多年平均草畜压力指数(GLPI)为 0.62,表明草原总体上为牲畜提供了充足的饲料。然而,21.5%的区域仍面临过度放牧的风险,主要集中在人类活动频繁的山谷地区。2000 年至 2019 年期间,该地区约 42.3% 的地区的全球碳储量显著增加,特别是在 Ngamring、Tingri 和 Dinggye。2007 年后,随着实际放牧率的逐步下降,GCC 有了可观的改善,从而进一步减轻了放牧压力。此外,气候变化、土壤条件和人口压力是 GCC 变化的主要驱动因素,它们对 GCC 面积上升/下降的贡献在不同时期有显著差异。随着时间的推移,在超过 85% 的研究区域中,影响 GCC 变化趋势的主导因素已从人类活动转变为气候因素,尤其是较好的水分条件带来的积极贡献。这项研究为草原管理和可持续发展提供了新的视角,有助于解决草原生态问题,保障牧民福祉和生态安全。
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来源期刊
Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment
Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment 环境科学-环境科学
CiteScore
11.70
自引率
9.10%
发文量
392
审稿时长
26 days
期刊介绍: Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment publishes scientific articles dealing with the interface between agroecosystems and the natural environment, specifically how agriculture influences the environment and how changes in that environment impact agroecosystems. Preference is given to papers from experimental and observational research at the field, system or landscape level, from studies that enhance our understanding of processes using data-based biophysical modelling, and papers that bridge scientific disciplines and integrate knowledge. All papers should be placed in an international or wide comparative context.
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