Global warming creates the adaptation tipping points of livestock exposure to cold and heat stress on the Qinghai-Tibetan plateau

Abstract

CONTEXT

Global warming has created tipping points across various ecosystems, but few studies have focused on the livestock systems. The Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP) has been warming at a rate two to three times greater than the global average, potentially leading to a transition from historically prevalent livestock cold stress to heat stress.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to estimate the cold and heat stress exposure of livestock systems on the QTP under climate change, and identify the adaptation tipping points and disproportionate changes of livestock predominant cold-to-heat stress exposure.

METHODS

Livestock cold and heat stress were evaluated based on seasonal distribution and specific thresholds. The Moving-t-test and non-linear analyses were used to identify adaptation tipping points and examine disproportionate changes between the increase in heat stress and the decrease in cold stress.

RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS

The adaptation tipping points of cold-to-heat stress transition for cattle have already arrived, while that for sheep would also come within this century if warming is not limited to 2 °C. As climate warming becomes more severe, the increased heat stress exposure is greater than decreased cold stress exposure, and the positive disproportionality is increasing with the rise of temperature.

SIGNIFICANCE

This study not only sheds light on the underexplored realm of tipping points within the livestock systems but also offers crucial insights into livestock adapting to the changing dynamics of cold and heat stress on the QTP in the context of global warming.