Simulation and projection of photovoltaic energy potential over a tropical region using CMIP6 models

IF 1.8 4区地球科学 Q3 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS

Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics Pub Date : 2024-11-20 DOI:10.1016/j.jastp.2024.106384

Olusola Samuel Ojo, Promise Dunsin Adesemoye

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Abstract

The study examines the potential impact of climate change on photovoltaic energy (PV) in Nigeria. Solar radiation and temperature datasets from 13 regional climate models (CMIP6) for 2015–2099 were used to evaluate the photovoltaic energy under moderate (SSP245) and high (SSP585) emission scenarios for near-future (2023–2053), mid-future (2054–2084), and far-future (2084–2099) periods. The precision of the models for the simulation of PV energy was validated with MERRA-2 reference data using the compromise programming index (CPI). Models with the lowest CPI were selected for regional PV energy projections. The findings showed varying numbers of increase and decrease projected changes across the four regions under SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios for the near, mid and far future timescales. Specifically, in the SSP245 scenario, the model with lowest CPI was the CMCC-CESM2 model, it projected a decrease in PV energy in the Sahel (−2.30), an increase in the Guinea Savannah (+2.80), the Rainforest (+1.20) and the coastal region (+4.80) for the far future period (2085–2099). In the SSP585 scenario, the AWI-CM-1.1-MR model projected a decrease in the Sahel region (−4.60), while the MPI-ESM1-2-LR model projected an increase in the Guinea Savannah region (+1.80), and the ACCESS-CM2 model projected an increase in the Rainforest (+10.20) and Coastal regions (+13.20) for the far-future. All values in the parentheses are measured in watts-hour per square-meters. The projected changes in PV energy revealed the need for a regional-specific approach to the planning and implementation of energy transition mix in Nigeria.

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利用 CMIP6 模型模拟和预测热带地区的光伏能源潜力

本研究探讨了气候变化对尼日利亚光伏能源（PV）的潜在影响。研究使用了 13 个区域气候模型（CMIP6）中 2015-2099 年的太阳辐射和温度数据集，以评估近未来（2023-2053 年）、中未来（2054-2084 年）和远未来（2084-2099 年）期间中度（SSP245）和高度（SSP585）排放情景下的光伏能源。利用折衷编程指数（CPI），通过 MERRA-2 参考数据验证了光伏能源模拟模型的精度。选择 CPI 最低的模型进行区域光伏能源预测。研究结果表明，在 SSP245 和 SSP585 情景下，四个地区在近期、中期和远期时间尺度上的预测增减变化数量各不相同。具体而言，在 SSP245 情景中，CPI 最低的模型是 CMCC-CESM2 模型，该模型预测萨赫勒地区的光伏发电量将减少（-2.30），几内亚大草原（+2.80）、热带雨林（+1.20）和沿海地区（+4.80）的光伏发电量在远期（2085-2099）将增加。在 SSP585 情景下，AWI-CM-1.1-MR 模式预测萨赫勒地区将减少（-4.60），而 MPI-ESM1-2-LR 模式预测几内亚大草原地区将增加（+1.80），ACCESS-CM2 模式预测远未来热带雨林地区将增加（+10.20），沿海地区将增加（+13.20）。括号中的所有数值均以每平方米瓦时为单位。光伏能源的预测变化表明，在尼日利亚规划和实施能源转型组合时，需要采用针对具体地区的方法。

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来源期刊

Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 地学-地球化学与地球物理

CiteScore

4.10

自引率

5.30%

发文量

审稿时长

6 months

期刊介绍： The Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics (JASTP) is an international journal concerned with the inter-disciplinary science of the Earth''s atmospheric and space environment, especially the highly varied and highly variable physical phenomena that occur in this natural laboratory and the processes that couple them. The journal covers the physical processes operating in the troposphere, stratosphere, mesosphere, thermosphere, ionosphere, magnetosphere, the Sun, interplanetary medium, and heliosphere. Phenomena occurring in other "spheres", solar influences on climate, and supporting laboratory measurements are also considered. The journal deals especially with the coupling between the different regions. Solar flares, coronal mass ejections, and other energetic events on the Sun create interesting and important perturbations in the near-Earth space environment. The physics of such "space weather" is central to the Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics and the journal welcomes papers that lead in the direction of a predictive understanding of the coupled system. Regarding the upper atmosphere, the subjects of aeronomy, geomagnetism and geoelectricity, auroral phenomena, radio wave propagation, and plasma instabilities, are examples within the broad field of solar-terrestrial physics which emphasise the energy exchange between the solar wind, the magnetospheric and ionospheric plasmas, and the neutral gas. In the lower atmosphere, topics covered range from mesoscale to global scale dynamics, to atmospheric electricity, lightning and its effects, and to anthropogenic changes.