Seasonality and climate modes influence the temporal clustering of unique atmospheric rivers in the Western U.S

Abstract

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are narrow corridors of intense water vapor transport, shaping precipitation, floods, and economies. Temporal clustering of ARs tripled losses compared to isolated events, yet the reasons behind this clustering remain unclear. AR orientation further modulates hydrological impacts through terrain interaction. Here we identify unique ARs over the North Pacific and Western U.S. and utilize Cox regression and composite analysis to examine how six major climate modes influence temporal clustering of unique ARs and orientation during extended boreal winter (November to March). Results show that climate modes condition temporal clustering of unique ARs. The Pacific-North American weather pattern strongly modulates the clustering over the Western U.S. from early to late winter. The quasi-biennial oscillation and Pacific decadal oscillation affect late winter clustering, while the Arctic oscillation dominates early winter. Climate modes also strongly influence AR orientation, with ENSO particularly affecting the orientation of temporally clustered ARs. The Pacific-North American weather pattern significantly influences unique atmospheric river temporal clustering in the Western U.S., with quasi-biennial oscillation and Pacific decadal oscillation affecting late winter clustering and Arctic oscillation dominating early winter, according to analysis of six climate modes’ influence on unique atmospheric river clustering.