The Trends in Prevalence of Blindness Caused by Refraction Disorders in China from 1990 to 2019 and Its Predictions: Findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

IF 1.7 4区医学 Q3 OPHTHALMOLOGY

Ophthalmic epidemiology Pub Date : 2024-11-22 DOI:10.1080/09286586.2024.2407900

Qingying Yao, Bo Jiang, Jie Wu, Gaoqin Liu, Peirong Lu

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Purpose: To examine the burden of blindness caused by refraction disorders (BCRD) in China over the past 30 years by year, age, and sex, and to estimate future projections.

Methods: Data from the Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) 2019 database were used to analyze the number of cases and age-standardized prevalence rates (ASPRs) of BCRD in China from 1990 to 2019. We focused on changes over time using estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs). In addition, we performed the Nordpred analysis and the Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) model with integrated nested Laplace approximations to predict the BCRD burden from 2020 to 2034.

Results: The number of prevalent cases due to BCRD increased from 750,956.7 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 636,381.24-872,040.62) in 1990 to 1,145,881.76 (95% UI 931,966.43-1,342,338.18) in 2019. The ASPRs of BCRD showed a decreasing trend, with EAPCs of -0.58 (95% confidence interval [CI] -0.81-0.36). The older and female populations had a higher BCRD burden. The number of prevalent cases due to BCRD is projected to continue to increase from 1.33 million in 2020 to 1.86 million in 2034. The ASPR also showed an increasing trend over the next 15 years.

Conclusion: Over the past three decades, the prevalence of BCRD in China has improved in both sexes and will continue to increase in the next 15 years. This study highlights the importance of prevention of BCRD, especially for women and the elderly.

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1990-2019年中国屈光障碍致盲流行趋势及其预测：2019年全球疾病负担研究结果》。

目的：按年份、年龄和性别研究过去30年中国屈光障碍致盲（BCRD）的负担，并估计未来的预测：方法：我们利用全球疾病负担（GBD）2019数据库的数据，分析了1990年至2019年中国屈光不正致盲的病例数和年龄标准化患病率（ASPR）。我们使用估算的年度百分比变化（EAPCs）重点分析了随时间推移的变化。此外，我们还进行了Nordpred分析和贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列（BAPC）模型，利用集成嵌套拉普拉斯近似法预测了2020年至2034年的BCRD负担：BCRD 发病率从 1990 年的 750,956.7 例（95% 不确定区间 [UI] 636,381.24-872,040.62 例）增至 2019 年的 1,145,881.76 例（95% 不确定区间 [UI] 931,966.43-1,342,338.18 例）。BCRD 的 ASPRs 呈下降趋势，EAPCs 为-0.58（95% 置信区间 [CI] -0.81-0.36）。老年人口和女性人口的 BCRD 负担较高。预计血液传播疾病的发病人数将继续增加，从 2020 年的 133 万增至 2034 年的 186 万。在未来 15 年内，ASPR 也将呈上升趋势：结论：在过去的 30 年中，中国男女 BCRD 患病率均有所提高，并将在未来 15 年中继续上升。这项研究强调了预防 BCRD 的重要性，尤其是对女性和老年人而言。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Ophthalmic epidemiology 医学-眼科学

CiteScore

3.70

自引率

5.60%

发文量

审稿时长

6-12 weeks

期刊介绍： Ophthalmic Epidemiology is dedicated to the publication of original research into eye and vision health in the fields of epidemiology, public health and the prevention of blindness. Ophthalmic Epidemiology publishes editorials, original research reports, systematic reviews and meta-analysis articles, brief communications and letters to the editor on all subjects related to ophthalmic epidemiology. A broad range of topics is suitable, such as: evaluating the risk of ocular diseases, general and specific study designs, screening program implementation and evaluation, eye health care access, delivery and outcomes, therapeutic efficacy or effectiveness, disease prognosis and quality of life, cost-benefit analysis, biostatistical theory and risk factor analysis. We are looking to expand our engagement with reports of international interest, including those regarding problems affecting developing countries, although reports from all over the world potentially are suitable. Clinical case reports, small case series (not enough for a cohort analysis) articles and animal research reports are not appropriate for this journal.