Potential distribution of endemic lizards from Brazilian restingas: The present announcing the end

Abstract

The restinga habitats are coastal psammophilous environments, with only 0.47% of the original area remaining in Brazil. This environment embraces at least 36 known species of lizards, 7 of them being endemic. Besides direct anthropogenic impacts, climate change raises new cautions on Brazilian restingas-endemic lizards conservation. We evaluated the current and future potential distribution of the endemic lizards from Brazilian restingas, considering different climate change scenarios. We hypothesized shifts in the potential distribution of the restinga-endemic lizards. We conducted ecological niche modeling to predict the potential distribution of Brazilian restingas-endemic lizards. Here, we used an ensemble of three modeling algorithms (Bioclim, GLM, and SVM). In predicting the effects of climate change on their future distributions, we used intermediate and pessimistic socio-economic pathway scenarios (SSP3 70 and SSP5 85, respectively) considering projections for 2081–2100. Furthermore, we calculate the extent of future potential distribution covered by the current spatial configuration of integral protection areas to assess if they will still be effective in conserving the species in the future. We did this by binarizing predicted potential distribution with a threshold of 0.8. Our data pointed out that the species will have their potential distribution area altered for 2081–2100, considering climate change scenarios. Tropidurus hygomi, Glaucomastix abaetensis, and G. itabaianensis overlapped along their predicted potential distribution for the present and future. The same was found to Ameivula nativo and Liolaemus lutzae. Moreover, our results showed a potential marked reduction of potential distribution covered PAs. The recognition of potential distribution areas discussed here enables focal and urgent conservation strategies, besides bringing up alerts on protected areas’ role in conserving these species under climate change scenarios. We propose creating planning policies using space and time criteria and developing long-term studies, besides promoting educational programs aiming at environmental conservation. Thus, we expect our research to contribute to the protection of the land over Brazilian restingas-endemic lizards' distribution.