Substantial impacts of climate shocks in African smallholder agriculture

Abstract

Climate change is affecting the frequency and severity of extreme weather events, such as droughts or floods, which result in loss and damage to people, crops and infrastructure. Global data on loss and damage used in research, policy and media primarily come from macrostatistics based on disaster inventories. Here, we propose a different approach, based on survey microdata. We harmonize data from 120,000 agricultural fields in six African countries for a period from 2008 to 2019 and quantify crop production losses related to climate shocks. We find substantial damages which affect around 35% of plots and reduce national crop production by 29% on average. The economic impacts are greater than the global disaster data suggest. The economic losses resulting from droughts and flood alone are US$5.1 billion higher than reported in disaster inventories, affecting between 145 and 170 million people. The difference stems mostly from smaller and less severe but frequent adverse events that go under-reported or undetected in disaster inventories and therefore elude macrostatistics and reporting. The findings have implications for measurement and policies related to loss and damage and disaster risk reduction. Estimating losses and damages caused by climate change is central to developing equitable climate policy. Microdata surveys have the potential to expose losses and damages among smallholder farmers that may otherwise be overlooked.