Closing the gap in race-based inequities for seasonal influenza hospitalizations: a modeling study.

Abstract

Background: BIPOC (Black, Indigenous, and other People of Color) communities bear a disproportional burden of seasonal influenza hospitalizations in the United States.

Methods: We developed a race-stratified (5 racial-ethnic groups) agent-based model of seasonal influenza transmission and quantify the effects of 5 idealized interventions aimed at reducing inequities in symptomatic infections and hospitalizations. The interventions assumed (i) equalized vaccination rates, (ii) equalized comorbidities, (iii) work-risk distribution proportional to the distribution of the population, (iv) reduced work contacts for all, or (v) a combination of equalizing vaccination rates and comorbidities and reducing work contacts.

Results: Our analysis suggests that symptomatic infections could be greatly reduced (by up to 17% in BIPOC adults aged 18-49) by strategies reducing work contacts or equalizing vaccination rates. All tested interventions reduced the inequity in influenza hospitalizations in all racial-ethnic groups, but interventions equalizing comorbidities were the most effective, with over 40% less hospitalizations in BIPOC groups. Inequities in hospitalizations in different racial-ethnic groups responded differently to interventions, pointing to the need of tailored interventions for different populations. Notably, these interventions resulted in better outcomes across all racial-ethnic groups, not only those prioritized by the interventions.

Conclusions: In this simulation modeling study, equalizing vaccination rates and reducing number of work contacts (e.g., improving air filtration systems, tailored vaccination campaigns) reduced both inequity and the total number of symptomatic infections and hospitalizations in all age and racial-ethnic groups. Reducing inequity in influenza hospitalizations requires different interventions for different groups.