Accelerated succession in Himalayan alpine treelines under climatic warming

Abstract

Understanding how climate change influences succession is fundamental for predicting future forest composition. Warming is expected to accelerate species succession at their cold thermal ranges, such as alpine treelines. Here we examined how interactions and successional strategies of the early-successional birch (Betula utilis) and the late-successional fir (Abies spectabilis) affected treeline dynamics by combining plot data with an individual-based treeline model at treelines in the central Himalayas. Fir showed increasing recruitment and a higher upslope shift rate (0.11 ± 0.02 m yr⁻¹) compared with birch (0.06 ± 0.03 m yr⁻¹) over the past 200 years. Spatial analyses indicate strong interspecies competition when trees were young. Model outputs from various climatic scenarios indicate that fir will probably accelerate its upslope movement with warming, while birch recruitment will decline drastically, forming stable or even retreating treelines. Our findings point to accelerating successional dynamics with late-successional species rapidly outcompeting pioneer species, offering insight into future forest succession and its influences on ecosystem services.