Post-Kyoto emissions in the United States

Abstract

In this study I show that even though the United States (US) did not ratify the Kyoto Protocol, it still largely behaved like a nation with a binding emissions target under the Kyoto Protocol. This is determined by running two sets of synthetic controls models — one using a sample comprised of nations that set a binding emissions target under the Kyoto Protocol, and one using a sample of nations that did not set a binding emissions target. With the exception of methane emissions, the emissions profile of the US resembles its counterparts who did set a binding emissions target. Thus, the US effectively reduced greenhouse emissions similarly to nations that set binding emissions targets under the Kyoto Protocol, but, by opting for natural gas, the US would not experience the same level of public health gains associated with reducing emissions. Given this, the primary implication for future climate policy is that, on the margin, ratifying a binding emissions target is the better choice for the potential signatory as it leads to a more fully internalized externality.