Personal income tax reform and household savings rates: Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in China

IF 7.5 1区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

International Review of Financial Analysis Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI:10.1016/j.irfa.2024.103726

Yulong Chen , Yating Li , Wenrui Zeng , Yang Zhao

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Abstract

This study examines the effects of the 2018 personal income tax reform on household savings rates using data from the China Household Finance Survey (CHFS). Employing a quasi-natural experiment approach, our findings demonstrate that the reform has led to an increase in savings rates among Chinese households. Mechanism tests indicate that income uncertainty serves as the underlying mechanism linking the personal income tax reform to household savings rates. Heterogeneity analyses reveal that the impact of the personal income tax reform on household savings rates is particularly pronounced for households with lower income and those whose heads have lower levels of education. Additionally, the personal income tax reform has elevated the proportion of household development and enjoyment consumption in total consumption. This study provides a novel micro-perspective on the influence of Chinese fiscal policies on residents' saving behavior and offers valuable insights for promoting high-quality consumption and fostering high-quality economic development.

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个人所得税改革与家庭储蓄率：来自中国准自然实验的证据

本研究利用中国家庭金融调查（CHFS）的数据，研究了 2018 年个人所得税改革对家庭储蓄率的影响。通过准自然实验方法，我们的研究结果表明，改革提高了中国家庭的储蓄率。机制检验表明，收入的不确定性是个人所得税改革与家庭储蓄率之间的内在联系机制。异质性分析表明，个人所得税改革对家庭储蓄率的影响对于低收入家庭和户主受教育程度较低的家庭尤为明显。此外，个人所得税改革还提高了家庭发展和享受型消费在总消费中的比重。本研究从微观角度探讨了中国财政政策对居民储蓄行为的影响，为促进居民高质量消费、推动经济高质量发展提供了有价值的启示。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

International Review of Financial Analysis BUSINESS, FINANCE-

CiteScore

10.30

自引率

9.80%

发文量

366

期刊介绍： The International Review of Financial Analysis (IRFA) is an impartial refereed journal designed to serve as a platform for high-quality financial research. It welcomes a diverse range of financial research topics and maintains an unbiased selection process. While not limited to U.S.-centric subjects, IRFA, as its title suggests, is open to valuable research contributions from around the world.