Spatio-temporal changes in atmospheric aridity over the arid region of Central Asia during 1979–2019

Abstract

The arid region of Central Asia (CA) is the largest non-zonal arid region in the world. It has experienced significant changes in climate and hydrological cycle systems owing to global warming, which has posed serious impacts on the water resources and ecological environment in this region. Although the atmospheric water vapor pressure deficit (VPD) can directly reflect the atmospheric moisture condition, studies on the change of atmospheric moisture deficit in CA are scarce. Thus, we investigated the changes in VPD in the arid region of CA from the perspective of atmospheric aridity based on the CRU TS4.04 and ERA5 data. Our results showed that the VPD in more than 95 % of grids in the arid region had a significantly increasing trend during 1979–2019. Seasonally, VPD trends were increasing in spring, summer, and autumn but decreasing in winter. The changes in saturated water vapor pressure and actual water vapor pressure determined the VPD changes. The saturated water vapor pressure showed a clearly upward trend, whereas the actual water vapor pressure did not increase at the same rate, resulting in the increase of VPD. The first four leading modes revealed by empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis represented the patterns by explaining 81.4 % of the total variance. The positive phase of EOF1 was characterized by a monopole pattern, and this mode continued to increase. Contrastingly, EOF2 (and EOF3) showed dipole patterns over east–west CA (and north–south CA), with a mainly interannual variability. Due to the combined effect of increasing temperatures and decreasing relative humidity, the VPD has been intensifying since the mid-to-late 1990 s in CA, and the atmosphere has become significantly drier. These research results can deepen the scientific understanding of global warming impacts on atmospheric moisture and provides a reference for revealing the VPD changes and their impacts on the climate system and ecosystem in arid regions. Our results highlight that the impacts of VPD change should be adequately considered in environmental management and policy-making processes in Central Asia.