Understanding the evolution trend of urban flood risk and resilience for better flood management

IF 7 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Ecological Indicators Pub Date : 2024-11-16 DOI:10.1016/j.ecolind.2024.112829

Wenjie Chen , Yong Lei , Long Qi , Jiaxuan Zheng , Guoru Huang , Huilin Wang

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

The Pearl River Delta (PRD) has undergone rapid urbanization over the past three decades, leading to significant changes in urban flood risk and resilience. This study addresses the critical need to understand evolution trend of urban flood risk and resilience in the PRD for both pre-urbanization (1990) and post-urbanization (2020) periods. Using 12 indices integrated within the different frameworks, the spatial and temporal evolution of risk and resilience over the past 30 years are analyze. Six new evaluative indicators are introduced to capture spatial characteristics and their evolutionary trends more accurately. Findings reveal the spatial distribution of urban flood risk and resilience. And the results further indicate that high-risk and low-resilience areas have expanded, become more interconnected, and exhibited increased fragmentation and complexity, while spatial aggregation has decreased. High-risk areas particularly show a trend of spreading southward, whereas low-resilience areas have remained relatively stable. Strategies involving green infrastructure to reduce the interconnection of flood risk patches, urban planning to limit the expansion of risk regions, and adaptive management to handle the complexity of flood-prone areas are proposed. This study provides insights into the spatiotemporal evolution of flood risk and resilience, offering valuable guidance for urban planners and policymakers.

查看原文本刊更多论文

了解城市洪水风险和抗灾能力的演变趋势，更好地进行洪水管理

珠江三角洲（珠三角）在过去三十年间经历了快速的城市化进程，导致城市洪涝风险和抗灾能力发生了显著变化。本研究旨在了解珠三角城市化前（1990 年）和城市化后（2020 年）的城市洪水风险和抵御能力的演变趋势。利用不同框架下的 12 个综合指数，分析了过去 30 年间风险和抗灾能力的时空演变。为了更准确地捕捉空间特征及其演变趋势，引入了六个新的评估指标。研究结果揭示了城市洪水风险和抗灾能力的空间分布。结果进一步表明，高风险地区和低抗灾能力地区的面积扩大了，相互之间的联系增多了，碎片化和复杂性增加了，而空间聚集程度降低了。高风险地区尤其呈现出向南扩展的趋势，而低抗灾能力地区则保持相对稳定。本研究提出了一些策略，包括利用绿色基础设施减少洪水风险片区之间的相互联系，利用城市规划限制风险区域的扩大，以及利用适应性管理应对洪水易发区域的复杂性。这项研究为洪水风险和抗灾能力的时空演变提供了见解，为城市规划者和决策者提供了宝贵的指导。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Ecological Indicators 环境科学-环境科学

CiteScore

11.80

自引率

8.70%

发文量

1163

审稿时长

78 days

期刊介绍： The ultimate aim of Ecological Indicators is to integrate the monitoring and assessment of ecological and environmental indicators with management practices. The journal provides a forum for the discussion of the applied scientific development and review of traditional indicator approaches as well as for theoretical, modelling and quantitative applications such as index development. Research into the following areas will be published. • All aspects of ecological and environmental indicators and indices. • New indicators, and new approaches and methods for indicator development, testing and use. • Development and modelling of indices, e.g. application of indicator suites across multiple scales and resources. • Analysis and research of resource, system- and scale-specific indicators. • Methods for integration of social and other valuation metrics for the production of scientifically rigorous and politically-relevant assessments using indicator-based monitoring and assessment programs. • How research indicators can be transformed into direct application for management purposes. • Broader assessment objectives and methods, e.g. biodiversity, biological integrity, and sustainability, through the use of indicators. • Resource-specific indicators such as landscape, agroecosystems, forests, wetlands, etc.