An emergency linkage system of urban gas pipeline network based on Bayesian network

Abstract

The occurrence of urban gas pipeline network accidents will pose a great threat to people's lives and property. To protect the lives and property of urban residents and ensure the normal operation of the city, this paper studied the influencing factors of urban gas pipeline network accidents. Firstly, the influencing factors of urban gas pipeline network accidents were summarized and the corresponding fishbone diagram was constructed following the data from the U.S. Department of Transportation Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration. Secondly, based on the determined accident number model, the corresponding Bayesian network model was constructed to calculate the state probability and the sensitivity value. Finally, according to the relevant information of urban gas pipeline network management, combined with the numerical results of priori probability and sensitivity, an emergency linkage system based on the urban gas pipeline network was constructed. The calculation results of state probability and the sensitivity analysis indicate that corrosion is the most influential factor contributing to accidents in the urban gas pipeline network. The temperature change has the greatest influence on the occurrence of urban gas pipeline network accidents. Special attention should be paid to the prevention and management of these two aspects of the emergency linkage system. Besides, in order to verify the effectiveness of the system, this paper also uses AHP to evaluate the application of the system. This study aims to provide valuable insights for enhancing the safety management of urban gas pipeline networks, thereby elevating their safety management standards.