Systemic risk spillovers among global energy firms: Does geopolitical risk matter?

Abstract

In recent years, the worsening global geopolitical conditions have led investors and policy makers to become increasingly concerned about systemic risk in the global energy market. However, the existing literature has little empirical evidence on this problem from a geopolitical perspective. Based on an Elastic-Net-VAR model for depicting high-dimensional left-tail interdependence, this paper measures time-varying systemic risk spillovers among 212 energy firms in 36 countries. Then, a panel data model is established to examine the impact of geopolitical risk (GPR) on risk spillovers. Our results indicate that the GPR of a country directly intensifies the risk spillovers of the country's energy firms, as well as spreads to other countries based on geographic proximity and energy trade flows and indirectly intensifies the risk spillovers of the energy firms in these countries. Specifically, the indirect effects of GPR are more pronounced than the direct effects for fossil fuel firms, in oil-consuming countries, and during stable periods in global geopolitics. Moreover, the potential firm-level mechanisms through which GPR intensifies risk spillovers are declines in asset turnover, deceleration in corporate investment, and negative market forecasts. These findings can help to mitigate the adverse effects of GPR on energy firm performance, national energy security, and stability in the global energy market.