A data-driven ISM-BN model for safety analysis of inland shipping in the Pearl River Basin

IF 4.6 2区工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL

Ocean Engineering Pub Date : 2024-11-08 DOI:10.1016/j.oceaneng.2024.119421

Fang Li , Shengliang Lin , Heping Li , Jianchuan Yin , Dexin Li , Jinshui Zhang

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Inland shipping of the Pearl River plays an important role in the Chinese shipping system. To ensure navigation safety, we collect reports of maritime accidents from 2015 to 2022 in the Pearl River basin. This article extracts influencing factors by collecting the experience of inland waterway safety navigation and analyzing accident reports. Then, this paper uses the interpretative structural modeling method (ISM) to build a correlation model. Using a data-driven Bayesian network (BN), it analyzes the impact of various factors on the safety navigation in the Pearl River. The model validation is completed by compared with tree augmented naive Bayes classifiers (TAN) network using the same validation samples, through validation with the test set, the prediction accuracy has improved by 25%. The results indicate factors such as vessel type, accident month, accident day and time, etc. have a significant impact on the safety of navigation in the inland Pearl River waterway. The method used can identify important risk factors for accidents and the average predictive probability of validation samples reaches 87.03%. These research results could be extended to maritime management efforts in the Pearl River Basin.

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用于珠江流域内河航运安全分析的数据驱动 ISM-BN 模型

珠江内河航运在中国航运体系中占有重要地位。为确保通航安全，我们收集了珠江流域 2015 年至 2022 年的海事事故报告。本文通过收集内河航运安全航行经验，分析事故报告，提取影响因素。然后，本文采用解释性结构建模方法（ISM）建立相关模型。利用数据驱动的贝叶斯网络（BN），分析了各种因素对珠江安全航行的影响。使用相同的验证样本与树增强型天真贝叶斯分类器（TAN）网络进行比较，完成了模型验证，通过测试集验证，预测准确率提高了 25%。结果表明，船舶类型、事故月份、事故日和事故时间等因素对珠江内河航道的航行安全有重要影响。所使用的方法可以识别重要的事故风险因素，验证样本的平均预测概率达到 87.03%。这些研究成果可推广到珠江流域的海事管理工作中。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Ocean Engineering 工程技术-工程：大洋

CiteScore

7.30

自引率

34.00%

发文量

2379

审稿时长

8.1 months

期刊介绍： Ocean Engineering provides a medium for the publication of original research and development work in the field of ocean engineering. Ocean Engineering seeks papers in the following topics.