Does climate risk as barometers for specific clean energy indices? Insights from quartiles and time-frequency perspective

IF 13.6 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Economics Pub Date : 2024-11-03 DOI:10.1016/j.eneco.2024.108003

Hongjun Zeng , Mohammad Zoynul Abedin , Vineet Upreti

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

This study presents the first analysis of the nexus between the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), a measure of climate risk, and segmented clean energy indices (such as solar, renewable, and bioenergy). Our research findings indicate that (i) the Granger quantile causality significance of SOI on segmented clean energy indices is asymmetric across different conditional quantiles. Significant predictability of SOI is observed only at the 0.25 and 0.75 quantile levels for all segmented clean energy indices, except for the WilderHill Clean Energy Index and NASDAQ OMX Fuel Cell Index. (ii) The clean energy market is significantly influenced by SOI under bullish market conditions. Impacts of SOI on all clean energy markets are nearly negligible when clean energy indices are at the median and lower quantile levels. (iii) The influence of strong La Niña episodes on segmented clean energy indices is more pronounced than during periods of intense El Niño phenomena. (iv) SOI exhibited a positive correlation at mid-term and long-term frequencies with segmented Clean Energy sectors, excluding bioenergy, for the majority of the sample period. Our conclusions provide deeper insights for investors managing clean energy investments in extreme climate conditions. Additionally, they offer useful information for policymakers to formulate viable economic policies addressing climate change, ensuring energy security, and facilitating a safer transition to clean energy.

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气候风险是特定清洁能源指数的晴雨表吗？从四分位数和时间频率角度看问题

本研究首次分析了衡量气候风险的南方涛动指数（SOI）与细分清洁能源指数（如太阳能、可再生能源和生物能源）之间的关系。我们的研究结果表明：(i) SOI 对细分清洁能源指数的格兰杰量级因果关系在不同条件量级之间是不对称的。除 WilderHill 清洁能源指数和纳斯达克 OMX 燃料电池指数外，所有细分清洁能源指数仅在 0.25 和 0.75 量级水平上观察到 SOI 的显著预测性。(ii) 在牛市条件下，清洁能源市场受到 SOI 的显著影响。当清洁能源指数处于中位数和低分位数水平时，SOI 对所有清洁能源市场的影响几乎可以忽略不计。(iii) 与强烈的厄尔尼诺现象相比，强烈的拉尼娜现象对分部清洁能源指数的影响更为明显。(iv) 在样本期的大部分时间里，SOI 在中期和长期频率上与除生物能源外的分部清洁能源行业呈正相关。我们的结论为投资者在极端气候条件下管理清洁能源投资提供了更深刻的见解。此外，这些结论还为政策制定者提供了有用的信息，帮助他们制定可行的经济政策来应对气候变化、确保能源安全并促进向清洁能源更安全的过渡。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Energy Economics ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

18.60

自引率

12.50%

发文量

524

期刊介绍： Energy Economics is a field journal that focuses on energy economics and energy finance. It covers various themes including the exploitation, conversion, and use of energy, markets for energy commodities and derivatives, regulation and taxation, forecasting, environment and climate, international trade, development, and monetary policy. The journal welcomes contributions that utilize diverse methods such as experiments, surveys, econometrics, decomposition, simulation models, equilibrium models, optimization models, and analytical models. It publishes a combination of papers employing different methods to explore a wide range of topics. The journal's replication policy encourages the submission of replication studies, wherein researchers reproduce and extend the key results of original studies while explaining any differences. Energy Economics is indexed and abstracted in several databases including Environmental Abstracts, Fuel and Energy Abstracts, Social Sciences Citation Index, GEOBASE, Social & Behavioral Sciences, Journal of Economic Literature, INSPEC, and more.