Measuring transboundary disease spread - ASF in wild boars straddling Piedmont and Liguria

IF 3 4区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Microbial Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2024-11-08 DOI:10.1016/j.mran.2024.100329

Nicoletta Vitale , Paola Barzanti , Ines Crescio Maria , Rosanna Desiato , Lisa Guardone , Valeria Listorti , Walter Martelli , Cristiana Maurella , Barbara Moroni , Rosaria Possidente , Francesca Rossi , Giuseppe Ru

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to describe the impact, dynamics and risk factors of the incursion of the African Swine Fever (ASF) virus detected in early 2022 in the wild boar population straddling Piedmont and Liguria, 24 months after its emergence.

A study area of 4,162.2 km²s, comprising 234 municipalities in Liguria and Piedmont (north-western Italy), along with an external buffer zone, was considered. The epidemiological units were wild boars tested for ASF using real-time PCR between late December 2021 and December 31, 2023. The data were obtained from passive and active surveillance. Conventional methodologies were applied in the analysis of time series of tests, cases, or prevalence rates of positive animals. Maps were used to visualise and compare the monitoring activities, the location of cases and municipal standardised prevalence ratios. Clustering of high and low trends was studied by semester using a space-time permutation model. Risk factors analysis was based on multivariate Poisson regression modelling.

Over the 2-year study period, the epidemic's spread was closely monitored by testing 10,412 wild boars (25 % of them from passive surveillance). Probability of disease detection was 10.9 times higher among found dead animals compared with animals tested in active surveillance. Difficulties in carcass searching led to heterogeneities in surveillance sensitivity achieved locally and inherent uncertainties. A total of 1,165 wild boars that tested positive for ASF have been detected in 125 municipalities across three provinces. The outbreak has expanded over time and exhibited an increasing trend, with an epidemic doubling time of 10.7 months. There was seasonality, with an increasing trend from summer to spring. Prevalence rates followed the same temporal pattern. Significant low and high clusters respectively indicated endemic episodes in the interior areas of virus circulation and an ongoing invasion of surrounding regions.

The characteristics of this outbreak align with the cycle of wild boar habitat transmission observed in other outbreaks across Europe. The measures implemented were not sufficient to stop the epidemic: however, targeted interventions such as depopulation campaigns, reinforcement of physical barriers and increased biosecurity measures have prevented local spillover to domestic pigs and partially hindered the advance of the disease. In addition, the shown seasonality of the disease, likely can enhance control measures. The ongoing studies of the local wild boar populations and the evolution the epidemic along with the lessons learned so far will improve the efficiency and effectiveness of efforts to limit and ultimately eradicate the disease.

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测量跨境疾病传播 - 跨越皮埃蒙特和利古里亚的野猪感染 ASF

本文旨在描述非洲猪瘟（ASF）病毒出现 24 个月后，于 2022 年初在横跨皮埃蒙特和利古里亚的野猪种群中发现的影响、动态和风险因素。研究区域面积为 4,162.2 平方公里，包括利古里亚和皮埃蒙特（意大利西北部）的 234 个市镇以及外部缓冲区。流行病学单位是 2021 年 12 月底至 2023 年 12 月 31 日期间使用实时 PCR 进行 ASF 检测的野猪。数据来自被动和主动监测。常规方法用于分析检测、病例或阳性动物流行率的时间序列。地图用于直观显示和比较监测活动、病例地点和城市标准化流行率。利用时空置换模型对高趋势和低趋势的聚类进行了学期研究。在两年的研究期间，通过检测 10,412 头野猪（其中 25% 来自被动监测）密切监控了疫情的传播。与主动监测中检测到的动物相比，在发现的死亡动物中发现疾病的概率要高出 10.9 倍。尸体搜寻的困难导致了当地监测灵敏度的差异和固有的不确定性。在三个省的 125 个城市中，共检测到 1,165 头野猪对 ASF 呈阳性反应。随着时间的推移，疫情不断扩大，呈上升趋势，疫情翻倍时间为 10.7 个月。疫情有季节性，从夏季到春季呈上升趋势。流行率也呈现相同的时间模式。显著的低群集和高群集分别表明病毒传播的内部地区出现了流行性发作，并正在向周边地区入侵。所采取的措施并不足以阻止疫情：然而，有针对性的干预措施，如扑杀运动、加强物理屏障和强化生物安全措施，防止了疫情在当地蔓延到家猪，并部分阻碍了疫情的发展。此外，该疾病显示出的季节性很可能会加强控制措施。对当地野猪种群和疫情演变情况的持续研究以及迄今为止获得的经验教训将提高限制和最终根除该疾病的效率和效果。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Microbial Risk Analysis Medicine-Microbiology (medical)

CiteScore

5.70

自引率

7.10%

发文量

审稿时长

52 days

期刊介绍： The journal Microbial Risk Analysis accepts articles dealing with the study of risk analysis applied to microbial hazards. Manuscripts should at least cover any of the components of risk assessment (risk characterization, exposure assessment, etc.), risk management and/or risk communication in any microbiology field (clinical, environmental, food, veterinary, etc.). This journal also accepts article dealing with predictive microbiology, quantitative microbial ecology, mathematical modeling, risk studies applied to microbial ecology, quantitative microbiology for epidemiological studies, statistical methods applied to microbiology, and laws and regulatory policies aimed at lessening the risk of microbial hazards. Work focusing on risk studies of viruses, parasites, microbial toxins, antimicrobial resistant organisms, genetically modified organisms (GMOs), and recombinant DNA products are also acceptable.