Fueling Costa Rica’s green hydrogen future: A financial roadmap for global leadership

Abstract

This study evaluates the financial viability and scalability of green hydrogen production in Costa Rica, focusing on solar and wind energy. The research analyzes seven key provinces using Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) and wind speed data to assess energy potential. Monte Carlo simulations were employed to calculate the Net Present Value (NPV), hydrogen production costs, and economic sustainability over multiple project lifetimes. Guanacaste, with solar irradiance of 5.49 kWh/m²/day and wind speeds of 6.59 m/s, emerges as the most favorable region. The analysis reveals an NPV of $1,519.79 USD for onshore wind and $2,320.24 USD for offshore wind over 10 years. These values increase significantly for longer lifetimes, with 25-year NPVs of $3,687.40 USD for onshore wind and $5,890.72 USD for offshore wind, and 50-year NPVs reaching $7,456.21 USD and $11,560.38 USD, respectively. Hydrogen production costs are estimated at $49,696.75 USD from solar and $14,923.19 USD from wind energy. Despite its potential, high costs remain a challenge, requiring policy incentives, international cooperation, and green bonds to drive down costs and scale production. The study offers crucial insights for policymakers, investors, and researchers to support Costa Rica’s leadership in the global green hydrogen economy.