The number of exceptional people: Fewer than 85 per 1 million across key traits

Abstract

Cognitive biases can lead to overestimating the expected prevalence of exceptional multi-talented candidates, leading to potential dissatisfaction in recruitment contexts. This study aims to accurately estimate the odds of finding individuals who excel across multiple correlated dimensions. According to the literature, the three key individual differences variables are intelligence, conscientiousness, and emotional stability. Consequently, data were simulated using a multivariate normal distribution (N = 20 million), where the three variables were standardized (mean of 0 and SD of 1). The correlations were specified as: intelligence with conscientiousness (−0.03), intelligence with emotional stability (0.07), and conscientiousness with emotional stability (0.42). Cases were classified into four categories based on z-scores across the three dimensions: notable (≥ 0.0 SD), remarkable (≥ 1.0 SD), exceptional (≥ 2.0 SD), and profoundly exceptional (≥ 3.0 SD). Approximately 16% of cases were classified as notable, 1% as remarkable, and only 0.0085% met the exceptional criterion of 2 SDs above the mean. Just one case was identified as profoundly exceptional. These findings highlight the rarity of individuals excelling across multiple traits, suggesting a need to recalibrate recruitment expectations. Even moderately above-average individuals on these key dimensions may merit greater recognition due to their scarcity.