Integrating market penetration and cost technologies (IMPACT): Procurement incentives on fuel cell electric truck adoption in California

Abstract

In the United States, both federal and local governments have instituted various financial incentives to promote the adoption of zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) within their transportation sectors. However, it remains unclear whether these procurement incentives can effectively stimulate the adoption of ZEVs to achieve the expected targets, especially given the wide range of financial and non-financial factors anticipated in the coming decades. To investigate the energy, economic, and environmental aspects of the transition toward ZEVs, we developed the Integrating Market Penetration and Cost Technologies (IMPACT) model. In this study, it was tailored as a detailed analytical and quantification tool for investigating financial incentives for medium- and heavy-duty fuel cell electric trucks (FCETs). The IMPACT model comprises three interconnected sub-models: a vehicle cost model, a vehicle choice model, and an infrastructure model, each specifically tailored for the California market from 2024 to 2040. We designed three different incentive plans based on current policies: the IRS Clean Vehicle Tax Credits (CVTC) and the California Hybrid and Zero-Emission Truck and Bus Voucher Incentive Project (HVIP). The proposed hierarchical method facilitates a robust analysis of these incentives in relation to FCET sales and market shares, providing a quantitative basis to gauge the fiscal impact and effectiveness of these incentives over time. Our findings indicate that while financial incentives are crucial for enhancing FCET adoption, their design and implementation must be meticulously planned. Careful balancing of factors such as vehicle cost, infrastructure availability, and long-term sustainability is essential to optimize policy outcomes. This study underscores the complexity of incentive strategies and offers critical insights for policymakers aiming to expedite the deployment of FCETs and supporting hydrogen infrastructure in California and beyond.