Inflation expectations in the wake of the war in Ukraine

IF 1.6 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics Pub Date : 2024-11-03 DOI:10.1016/j.socec.2024.102303

Geghetsik Afunts , Misina Cato , Tobias Schmidt

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Abstract

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine brought a range of new challenges to the global economy, including affecting the inflation expectations of individuals. In this paper, we aim to quantify the effect of the invasion on short- and long-term inflation expectations of individuals in Germany. We use microdata from the Bundesbank Online Panel - Households (BOP-HH), for the period from February 15th to March 29th, 2022. Treating the unanticipated start of the war in Ukraine on the 24th of February 2022 as a natural experiment, we find that both short- and long-term inflation expectations increased as an immediate result of the invasion. Long-term inflation expectations increased by around 0.4 percentage points, while the impact on short-term inflation expectations was more than twice as large - around one percentage point. These significant deviations from the central bank’s target, highlight an elevated risk of de-anchoring of inflation expectations early in March 2022. Looking into the possible mechanisms of this increase, we suggest that it can be partially attributed to individuals’ fears of soaring energy prices and increasing pessimism about economic trends in general. Our results indicate that large geopolitical shocks can have a substantial impact on both short and long-term inflation expectations.

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乌克兰战争后的通货膨胀预期

俄罗斯入侵乌克兰给全球经济带来了一系列新的挑战，包括影响个人的通胀预期。本文旨在量化俄罗斯入侵对德国个人短期和长期通胀预期的影响。我们使用的微观数据来自德国联邦银行在线面板-家庭（BOP-HH），时间跨度为 2022 年 2 月 15 日至 3 月 29 日。将 2022 年 2 月 24 日乌克兰战争的意外爆发视为一个自然实验，我们发现短期和长期通胀预期都因乌克兰入侵而立即上升。长期通胀预期增加了约 0.4 个百分点，而对短期通胀预期的影响是其两倍多，约为 1 个百分点。这些与中央银行目标的重大偏离，凸显了 2022 年 3 月初通胀预期去锚化的高风险。在探究这一增长的可能机制时，我们认为部分原因在于个人对能源价格飙升的担忧以及对整体经济趋势日益悲观的情绪。我们的研究结果表明，大规模地缘政治冲击会对短期和长期通胀预期产生重大影响。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

2.60

自引率

12.50%

发文量

113

审稿时长

83 days

期刊介绍： The Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly the Journal of Socio-Economics) welcomes submissions that deal with various economic topics but also involve issues that are related to other social sciences, especially psychology, or use experimental methods of inquiry. Thus, contributions in behavioral economics, experimental economics, economic psychology, and judgment and decision making are especially welcome. The journal is open to different research methodologies, as long as they are relevant to the topic and employed rigorously. Possible methodologies include, for example, experiments, surveys, empirical work, theoretical models, meta-analyses, case studies, and simulation-based analyses. Literature reviews that integrate findings from many studies are also welcome, but they should synthesize the literature in a useful manner and provide substantial contribution beyond what the reader could get by simply reading the abstracts of the cited papers. In empirical work, it is important that the results are not only statistically significant but also economically significant. A high contribution-to-length ratio is expected from published articles and therefore papers should not be unnecessarily long, and short articles are welcome. Articles should be written in a manner that is intelligible to our generalist readership. Book reviews are generally solicited but occasionally unsolicited reviews will also be published. Contact the Book Review Editor for related inquiries.