A review of global long-term changes in the mesosphere, thermosphere and ionosphere: A starting point for inclusion in (semi-) empirical models

Abstract

The climate of the upper atmosphere, including the mesosphere, thermosphere and ionosphere, is changing. As data records are much more limited than in the lower atmosphere and solar variability becomes increasingly dominant at higher altitudes, accurate trend detection and attribution is not straightforward. Nonetheless, observations reliably indicate that, on average, the mesosphere has been cooling, the density in the thermosphere has been decreasing, and ionospheric layers have been shifting down. These global mean changes can be largely attributed to the increase in CO₂ concentration, which causes cooling and thermal contraction in the middle and upper atmosphere. The decline in thermosphere density is particularly relevant from a practical viewpoint, as this reduces atmospheric drag and thereby increases orbital lifetimes and the build-up of space debris. Long-term changes in the ionosphere can have further practical implications and are not only driven by the increase in CO₂ concentration, but also by changes in the Earth’s magnetic field. The empirical models that are mostly used to inform applications in industry on the state of the upper atmosphere, as well as being widely used in science, do not yet properly account for long-term trends in the mesosphere, thermosphere and ionosphere. This is problematic when long-term future projections are needed or models rely strongly on older data. This review provides an overview of the main evidence of long-term trends observed in the mesosphere, thermosphere and ionosphere, together with the latest insights on what causes these trends. It is hoped that this may serve as a starting point to include long-term trends in (semi-) empirical models to benefit all users of these models. We also offer some thoughts on how this could be approached.