Robust load feature extraction based secondary VMD novel short-term load demand forecasting framework

IF 3.3 3区工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, ELECTRICAL & ELECTRONIC

Electric Power Systems Research Pub Date : 2024-11-07 DOI:10.1016/j.epsr.2024.111198

Miao Zhang , Guowei Xiao , Jianhang Lu , Yixuan Liu , Haotian Chen , Ningrui Yang

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Load forecasting, as a crucial component of the electricity market, plays a significant role in ensuring the secure operation and rational planning of the power grid. However, as the power system becomes increasingly intricate, the demands on load forecasting techniques have escalated. Consequently, to mitigate the errors in short-term load forecasting (STLF) caused by uncertainty factors and to accommodate daily forecasting under abnormal electricity load conditions, this paper proposes a hybrid load forecasting model that combines an improved Secondary Variational Mode Decomposition (SVMD) algorithm with the Informer model. Employing electricity load data from the Panama context, the data is divided into four distinct experimental cases. The outcomes manifest that in contrast to the baseline model, the proposed approach engenders a minimal reduction of 15.08%, 12.95%, and 13.21% in Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), respectively. Furthermore, supplementary experimental results demonstrate that the model exhibits strong robustness.

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基于二次 VMD 的稳健负荷特征提取的新型短期负荷需求预测框架

作为电力市场的重要组成部分，负荷预测在确保电网安全运行和合理规划方面发挥着重要作用。然而，随着电力系统日益复杂，对负荷预测技术的要求也在不断提高。因此，为了减少不确定性因素对短期负荷预测（STLF）造成的误差，并适应异常负荷条件下的日常预测，本文提出了一种混合负荷预测模型，该模型结合了改进的二次变异模式分解（SVMD）算法和 Informer 模型。利用巴拿马的电力负荷数据，将数据分为四个不同的实验案例。实验结果表明，与基线模型相比，所提出的方法在平均绝对百分比误差 (MAPE)、平均绝对误差 (MAE) 和均方根误差 (RMSE) 方面分别降低了 15.08%、12.95% 和 13.21%。此外，补充实验结果表明，该模型具有很强的鲁棒性。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Electric Power Systems Research 工程技术-工程：电子与电气

CiteScore

7.50

自引率

17.90%

发文量

963

审稿时长

3.8 months

期刊介绍： Electric Power Systems Research is an international medium for the publication of original papers concerned with the generation, transmission, distribution and utilization of electrical energy. The journal aims at presenting important results of work in this field, whether in the form of applied research, development of new procedures or components, orginal application of existing knowledge or new designapproaches. The scope of Electric Power Systems Research is broad, encompassing all aspects of electric power systems. The following list of topics is not intended to be exhaustive, but rather to indicate topics that fall within the journal purview. • Generation techniques ranging from advances in conventional electromechanical methods, through nuclear power generation, to renewable energy generation. • Transmission, spanning the broad area from UHV (ac and dc) to network operation and protection, line routing and design. • Substation work: equipment design, protection and control systems. • Distribution techniques, equipment development, and smart grids. • The utilization area from energy efficiency to distributed load levelling techniques. • Systems studies including control techniques, planning, optimization methods, stability, security assessment and insulation coordination.