Effects of different renewable electricity diffusion paths and restricted european cooperation on Europe's hydrogen supply

Abstract

Today, most hydrogen production is based on natural gas and occurs locally at the demand sites. However, according to many studies, hydrogen generation will shift to greenhouse gas (GHG)-neutral sources and supply, substantially increasing demands to meet ambitious climate protection targets in the European Union. Therefore, the model-based analysis in this paper addresses where hydrogen will come from in a GHG-neutral target system. A scenario study examines different expansion paths of renewable energy generation technologies and variations in European cooperation regarding energy trading. The model results show that a domestic European hydrogen supply strategy is cost-efficient. This result is robust even with higher self-sufficiency shares of individual countries. However, delayed or restricted expansions of renewable electricity generation technologies lead to increased hydrogen demands for power generation and increased pipeline-bound hydrogen imports in winter from the Middle East and North Africa in the model results. Furthermore, scenarios with higher photovoltaic shares exhibit increased demand for hydrogen storage for seasonal energy supply and demand balancing and increased hydrogen demands for power generation. A cost-efficient hydrogen supply strategy should, therefore, particularly focus on the expansion of onshore wind energy and hydrogen supply technologies in Europe and strengthen European cooperation for energy supply infrastructures.