Vote choice in the context of lethal police violence: A research note

Abstract

Do police-caused deaths predict presidential vote choice in the US? This study explores the relationship between lethal police violence and vote choice in the 2020 presidential election using individual-level data from Harvard University's Cooperative Election Study (CES), which has been linked with aggregate-level data on police killings, civilian homicide rates, and socioeconomic, political, and public health characteristics. Consistent with the issue ownership theory of voting, this study finds that voters living in areas characterized by lethal police violence are significantly more likely to vote for the Democratic Party above and beyond their individual-level attributes and other contextual conditions. These findings and supplemental analyses raise critical questions concerning the political salience of fatal force in presidential races in the post-2020 era. Findings also support the need for further criminological inquiry into the effects of different forms of violence on American political behavior.