Interrelated drivers of migration intentions in Africa: Evidence from Afrobarometer surveys

Abstract

Migration is influenced by various factors, including economic, political, social, and environmental drivers. While the multicausal nature of migration has been recognized, there are considerable gaps in understanding how different drivers interact with each other and jointly influence human mobility. This is particularly relevant in the African context, where local communities are faced with multiple, often interlinked challenges that affect their livelihoods, security, and health and well-being. Using detailed data from Afrobarometer surveys for 36 countries, this study analyzes the interconnected nature of 23 potential drivers of migration intentions that span across various domains. Our results show that previous migration experiences at the household level, political conditions and instabilities, the personal economic situation, as well as issues related to personal safety are particularly strongly related to respondents’ intentions to migrate. The drivers are not independent of each other, but closely interconnected, jointly shaping and reinforcing migration intentions in non-linear ways. We also find strong evidence for heterogeneous effects of the drivers across sociodemographic groups, further contributing to diverse patterns in the relationships. Our study emphasizes the need to move beyond analyzing average linear effects and advocates for approaches that consider the interdependencies of various systems of drivers and their interconnected roles in shaping both intended and actual migration behavior.