Possible Causes for the Unprecedented Low/High Tropical Cyclone Activities in the Northern Pacific/Atlantic in 2023 El Niño

Abstract

This study reported the unprecedented tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the western North Pacific (WNP) and North Atlantic (NA) during the developing year of the 2023/2024 El Niño. The possible causes behind these unusual features were addressed. In contrast to previous El Niño events, an unusual low/high TC genesis number in the WNP/NA was identified during the typhoon season (June–November) in 2023. Meanwhile, the mean TC genesis location in the WNP exhibited a La Niña-like northwestward shift, rarely observed in an El Niño developing year. An observational diagnosis on TC-genesis-related large-scale dynamics and thermodynamics revealed that the lower/higher TC numbers in the WNP/NA were primarily attributed to an anticyclonic/cyclonic anomaly linked to trans-basin sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropics and extratropics. Additionally, weaker intraseasonal oscillation activity compared to previous El Niños also partially contributed to fewer TCs in the WNP.