Substantial Increase in Sub–Daily Precipitation Extremes of Flooding Season Over China

IF 4.6 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Geophysical Research Letters Pub Date : 2024-11-16 DOI:10.1029/2024gl112182

Yujie Wang, Lianchun Song, Pengke Shen, Yan Yang

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Abstract

Understanding sub-daily precipitation extremes (SPEs) can provide scientific insights for taking effective measures to mitigate climate risks. Leveraging gauge observations at hourly precipitation in 2,312 meteorological stations and extreme sub-daily precipitation indices (ESPIs), we investigate the changes of SPEs in flooding season of 1971–2022 in China. On country scale, the occurrences and intensity of SPEs have significantly increased and even accelerated since the 21st century, suggesting increases in 2010s by 15%–38% compared with that in 1970s. The SPE risks for 20-year and 50-year return-period increased by 2–4 and 8–20 times in 2001–2022 compared with that in 1971–2000, respectively. Over 80% stations are found to have positive trends in all ESPIs. On regional scale, seven sub-regions experienced significant increases in ESPIs with larger magnitudes in the East China. The enlarged 500-hPa geopotential height, 700-hPa pseudoequivalent potential temperature, 700-hPa specific humidity, saturated vapor pressure and urbanization ratio may be bonded to more SPEs.

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中国汛期日以下极端降水量大幅增加

了解亚日极端降水（SPEs）可以为采取有效措施减轻气候风险提供科学依据。利用 2312 个气象站的小时降水量观测数据和亚日极端降水指数（ESPIs），我们研究了 1971-2022 年中国汛期亚日极端降水的变化。从全国范围来看，21 世纪以来，SPE 的发生率和强度明显增加，甚至加速，2010 年代比 1970 年代增加了 15%-38%。与 1971-2000 年相比，2001-2022 年 20 年和 50 年回归期的 SPE 风险分别增加了 2-4 倍和 8-20 倍。超过 80% 的站点在所有 ESPI 中均呈正趋势。在区域尺度上，有 7 个分区域的 ESPIs 显著增加，其中华东地区的 ESPIs 增加幅度较大。500-hPa位势高度、700-hPa伪等效势温、700-hPa比湿、饱和蒸汽压和城市化率的扩大可能与更多的SPEs有关。

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来源期刊

Geophysical Research Letters 地学-地球科学综合

CiteScore

9.00

自引率

9.60%

发文量

1588

审稿时长

2.2 months

期刊介绍： Geophysical Research Letters (GRL) publishes high-impact, innovative, and timely research on major scientific advances in all the major geoscience disciplines. Papers are communications-length articles and should have broad and immediate implications in their discipline or across the geosciences. GRLmaintains the fastest turn-around of all high-impact publications in the geosciences and works closely with authors to ensure broad visibility of top papers.