The Fate of Deep Permafrost Carbon in Northern High Latitudes in the 21st Century: A Process-Based Modeling Analysis

Abstract

Warming in permafrost regions stimulates carbon (C) release through decomposition, but increasing atmospheric CO₂ and available soil nitrogen enhance plant productivity at the same time. To date, a large uncertainty in the regional C dynamics still remains. Here we use a process-based biogeochemical model by considering C exposure from thawed permafrost and observational data to quantify permafrost C emissions and ecosystem C budget in northern high latitudes in the 21st century. Permafrost degradation will make 119.3 Pg and 251.6 Pg C available for decomposition by 2100 under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP)126 and SSP585, respectively. However, only 4–8% of the newly thawed permafrost C is expected to be released into the atmosphere by 2100. Cumulatively, permafrost degradation will reduce ecosystem C stocks by 3.37 Pg and 15.37 Pg under the SSP126 and SSP585, respectively. Additionally, CO₂ fertilization effects would stimulate plant productivity and increase ecosystem C stocks substantially. The combined effects of climate change, CO₂ fertilization, and permafrost degradation on C fluxes are typically more profound than any single factor, emphasizing the intricate interplay between these elements in shaping permafrost C-climate feedbacks. Our study suggests that the majority of the thawed C will remain sequestered in previously frozen layers in this century, posing a significant challenge to climate change mitigation efforts once any process accelerates the decomposition of this huge amount of thawed C.