Transforming Aviation's Impact on the Climate: Rethinking the Research Strategy.

Abstract

Aviation is under tremendous pressure to mitigate its impacts on the climate, but the best response strategies are unknown today due to deep uncertainties. How low-emission fuels will scale to levels relevant for the industry, along with the best strategies for managing contrails and other non-CO₂ effects, are unknowable today with unknown cost and disruption. A conventional risk-based approach that involves investment across a known set of options is unworkable; instead, we argue that an experimentalist approach is needed that addresses deep uncertainties head on. This hinges on four key factors: a critical mass of actors facing strong incentives to identify solutions, a wide search for alternatives through experiments, periodic assessments, and adjustment of goals and strategies. Present strategies do not give enough attention to higher-risk alternatives with disruptive potential, because those approaches have few political and organizational supporters. Small groups of highly motivated actors─such as the nascent coalition of first movers on clean aviation already forming in Europe and the U.S.─could initiate an experimentalist program. The challenges of the aviation sector mirror other hard-to-abate sectors, making this framework potentially applicable to a wider set of sectors where technological, business, and investment choices are shrouded in deep uncertainty.