Dynamic processes determine precipitation variability in Eastern Central European since the Last Glacial Maximum

Abstract

The response of European precipitation variability to climate change is still poorly understood. Here we present a high-resolution speleothem record of Eastern Central European (ECE) autumn/winter precipitation to study decadal to centennial hydroclimatic variations in the European-Atlantic sector since the Last Glacial Maximum. The Cloşani Cave δ18O record shows that the reorganization of the North Atlantic jet following the demise of the Northern Hemispheric ice sheets lasted until c. 6000 to 5000 years before present. Trace element-derived semi-quantitative autumn/winter precipitation amount reveals that the late Glacial and the early to mid-Holocene experienced about 20–30% higher precipitation than present. During the deglaciation, we detect an increased decadal to centennial precipitation variability decoupled from millennial-scale North Atlantic temperature changes. The findings suggest that dynamic (rather than thermodynamic) processes determine regional precipitation variability and the probability of extreme precipitation events in ECE, highlighting the importance of understanding such dynamics for future predictions. Dynamic atmospheric processes like the North Atlantic jet stream determine the variability of precipitation in Eastern Central Europe, according to analysis of a precipitation record derived from stalagmite trace elemental data from the last twenty thousand years.