Forecasting the Worldwide Impact of Stroke for individuals aged 45 and above.

IF 3.2 3区医学 Q2 CLINICAL NEUROLOGY

Neuroepidemiology Pub Date : 2024-11-12 DOI:10.1159/000542366

Weinv Fan, Qinghua Ma, Qiongfeng Guan, Feng Wang, Hui Li

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Background: We aimed to assess the global impact of stroke in people aged 45 years and older between 1990 and 2030, focusing on morbidity, mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs).

Methods: Generalized additive models (GAM) were used to project disease burden from 2020 to 2030. Additionally, the association between sociodemographic index (SDI) and stroke burden was investigated, and regional differences were assessed by Mann U test-Whitney.

Results: The overall age-standardized stroke incidence rate (ASIR) among adults aged 45 years and older is projected to increase from 2020 to 2030, with an estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) of 1.29. Conversely, the age-standardized death rate (ASDR) in EAPC is expected to decrease by -1.48, and the age-standardized DALY in EAPC is expected to decrease by -1.66. By 2030, men are expected to have higher ASIR (181.81) and ASDR (87.31) than women (ASIR: 151.85, ASDR: 65.20). Regional differences are large. East Asia is expected to have the highest ASIR in 2030 (265.55). Age estimates show that older age groups, particularly those aged 75 to 79, are at higher risk of stroke. In addition, there is a significant inverse relationship between SDI and stroke severity, with areas with higher SDI tending to have lower morbidity, mortality, and DALYs.

Conclusion: From 1990 to 2030, ASIR is expected to upgrade, especially in East Asia and regions with lower SDI. Men will bear a greater burden than women.

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预测中风对全球 45 岁及以上人群的影响。

背景：我们旨在评估 1990 年至 2030 年间中风对 45 岁及以上人群的全球影响：我们旨在评估 1990 年至 2030 年期间中风对 45 岁及以上人群的全球影响，重点关注发病率、死亡率和残疾调整生命年（DALYs）：方法：采用广义加法模型（GAM）预测 2020 年至 2030 年的疾病负担。此外，还调查了社会人口指数（SDI）与中风负担之间的关系，并通过曼U检验-惠特尼评估了地区差异：结果：预计从 2020 年到 2030 年，45 岁及以上成年人的总体年龄标准化中风发病率（ASIR）将上升，估计年百分比变化（EAPC）为 1.29。相反，预计东亚和太平洋地区的年龄标准化死亡率（ASDR）将下降-1.48，东亚和太平洋地区的年龄标准化残疾调整寿命年（DALY）将下降-1.66。到 2030 年，男性的 ASIR（181.81）和 ASDR（87.31）预计将高于女性（ASIR：151.85，ASDR：65.20）。地区差异很大。预计 2030 年东亚的 ASIR 最高（265.55）。年龄估计值显示，老年群体，尤其是 75 至 79 岁的人群，患中风的风险较高。此外，SDI 与中风严重程度之间存在明显的反比关系，SDI 越高的地区发病率、死亡率和残疾调整寿命年数越低：结论：从 1990 年到 2030 年，ASIR 预计将上升，尤其是在东亚和 SDI 较低的地区。男性将比女性承受更大的负担。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Neuroepidemiology 医学-公共卫生、环境卫生与职业卫生

CiteScore

9.90

自引率

1.80%

发文量

审稿时长

6-12 weeks

期刊介绍： ''Neuroepidemiology'' is the only internationally recognised peer-reviewed periodical devoted to descriptive, analytical and experimental studies in the epidemiology of neurologic disease. The scope of the journal expands the boundaries of traditional clinical neurology by providing new insights regarding the etiology, determinants, distribution, management and prevention of diseases of the nervous system.