Geographic risk of classical swine fever in non-free regions in Brazil

IF 2.2 2区农林科学 Q1 VETERINARY SCIENCES

Preventive veterinary medicine Pub Date : 2024-11-05 DOI:10.1016/j.prevetmed.2024.106368

Paulo Gomes do Nascimento Corrêa , Pedro Ferreira de Sousa Júnior , Francisco Alyson Silva Oliveira , Glenda Lídice de Oliveira Cortez Marinho , David Germano Gonçalves Schwarz

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Brazil is the fourth largest producer and exporter of pork in the world, standing out for its potential to increase pig production nationwide. Among the diseases that can severely compromise trade relations and cause significant losses in pig production in Brazil, Classical Swine Fever (CSF) is notable for being a highly contagious viral disease with high potential for spreading among domestic and wild pigs, wild boars, and peccaries. The present study aimed to identify high-risk regions for CSF in Brazil through spatial, temporal, and spatiotemporal analyses from 2000 to 2023. During this period, 3189 cases of CSF were detected, all reported exclusively in states within the CSF non-free zone. The Northeast region accounted for 90.31 % (2880/3189) of the total CSF cases, with Ceará reporting the highest number of cases at 1475 (46.25 %), of which 810 were reported in 2018 alone. The North region accounted for 9.69 % (309/3189) of the total cases, with the states of Pará and Amapá being the only ones to report cases of the disease. Temporal trend analysis identified an increase in Piauí (Annual Percentage Change [APC]: 25.58 %), Alagoas (APC: 28.01 %), and Ceará (APC: 17.99 %), a decreasing trend for Pernambuco (APC: 24.49 %), Paraíba (APC: 19.35 %), and Rio Grande do Norte (APC: 11.85 %), and stability in Maranhão (APC: 0.17 %), Pará (APC: 1.61 %), and Amapá (APC: 15.52 %). The spatiotemporal analysis identified the formation of two high-risk clusters: the primary cluster occurred in the Northeast region, specifically in the states of Ceará, Piauí, Rio Grande do Norte, Paraíba, Pernambuco, and Alagoas, between 2018 and 2019, with a total of 1556 CSF cases and Relative Risk (RRs) of 120.02. The secondary cluster was formed by the states of Rondônia, Acre, Amazônia, Roraima, Pará, Amapá, and Mato Grosso, located in the North and part of the Midwest region, for the year 2009, with a total of 309 cases and an RRs of 29.89. In conclusion, the Northeast region is considered high-risk for the emergence of new CSF cases, highlighting the states of Ceará and Piauí, which can be considered important sources of CSF virus spread to other Brazilian states, alerting authorities to the need for disease control actions.

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巴西无猪瘟地区的典型猪瘟地理风险。

巴西是世界第四大猪肉生产国和出口国，在提高全国养猪产量方面潜力突出。在可能严重破坏贸易关系并给巴西养猪生产造成重大损失的疾病中，典型猪瘟（CSF）是一种传染性极强的病毒性疾病，极有可能在家猪、野猪、野猪和猯之间传播。本研究旨在通过 2000 年至 2023 年的空间、时间和时空分析，确定巴西 CSF 的高风险地区。在此期间，共发现了 3189 例 CSF 病例，所有报告病例均发生在 CSF 非自由区的各州。东北地区占 CSF 病例总数的 90.31%（2880/3189），其中塞阿拉州报告的病例数最多，为 1475 例（46.25%），仅 2018 年就报告了 810 例。北部地区占病例总数的 9.69%（309/3189），只有帕拉州和阿马帕州报告了该疾病的病例。对时间趋势的分析表明，皮奥伊州（年度百分比变化[APC]：25.58%）、阿拉戈斯州（年度百分比变化[APC]：28.01%）和塞阿拉州（年度百分比变化[APC]：17.99%）的病例数有所增加，伯南布哥州（年度百分比变化[APC]：24.49 %）、帕拉伊巴州（APC：19.35 %）和北里奥格兰德州（APC：11.85 %）呈下降趋势，马拉尼昂州（APC：0.17 %）、帕拉州（APC：1.61 %）和阿马帕州（APC：15.52 %）呈稳定趋势。时空分析发现形成了两个高风险集群：主要集群发生在东北地区，特别是塞阿拉州、皮奥伊州、北里奥格兰德州、帕拉伊巴州、伯南布哥州和阿拉戈斯州，在2018年至2019年期间，共有1556例CSF病例，相对风险（RRs）为120.02。2009年，位于北部和部分中西部地区的朗多尼亚州、阿克里州、亚马孙州、罗赖马州、帕拉州、阿马帕州和马托格罗索州形成了次要群组，共有309个病例，相对风险为29.89。总之，东北地区被认为是出现新 CSF 病例的高风险地区，其中塞阿拉州和皮奥伊州尤为突出，这两个州可被视为 CSF 病毒传播到巴西其他州的重要源头，提醒当局需要采取疾病控制行动。

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来源期刊

Preventive veterinary medicine 农林科学-兽医学

CiteScore

5.60

自引率

7.70%

发文量

184

审稿时长

3 months

期刊介绍： Preventive Veterinary Medicine is one of the leading international resources for scientific reports on animal health programs and preventive veterinary medicine. The journal follows the guidelines for standardizing and strengthening the reporting of biomedical research which are available from the CONSORT, MOOSE, PRISMA, REFLECT, STARD, and STROBE statements. The journal focuses on: Epidemiology of health events relevant to domestic and wild animals; Economic impacts of epidemic and endemic animal and zoonotic diseases; Latest methods and approaches in veterinary epidemiology; Disease and infection control or eradication measures; The "One Health" concept and the relationships between veterinary medicine, human health, animal-production systems, and the environment; Development of new techniques in surveillance systems and diagnosis; Evaluation and control of diseases in animal populations.