A predictive and prognostic model for metastasis risk and prognostic factors in gastrointestinal signet ring cell carcinoma.

Abstract

Background: This study aimed to predict metastasis risk and identify prognostic factors of gastrointestinal signet ring cell carcinoma (SRCC) using data from the SEER database, the largest cancer dataset in North America.

Methods: Data were obtained from the SEER database, covering 17 cancer registries from 2004 to 2020. Demographic and clinical data included sex, age, race, tumor location, size, pathological grade, stage, overall survival time, and treatment modalities. Statistical analyses were conducted using SPSS and R software. Propensity Score Matching (PSM) ensured comparable baseline characteristics between gastric cancer (GC) and colorectal cancer (CRC) groups. LASSO regression analysis identified predictors of metastasis, leading to the construction of predictive models using the lrm function in R. Nomograms were visualized with the "rms" package and assessed via ROC curves, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA). Cox regression analyses identified prognostic indicators for overall survival (OS), and Kaplan-Meier curves compared OS between high-risk and low-risk groups.

Results: From 2004 to 2020, 7680 SRCC patients were identified, including 4980 GC and 2700 CRC patients. CRC patients were older and had larger tumors, higher staging, and worse differentiation. Nomograms demonstrated good discriminative ability, with AUCs of 0.704 and 0.694 for GC, and 0.694 and 0.701 for CRC in training and validation cohorts, respectively. The DCA curve indicates that this predictive model has a high gain in predicting metastasis and OS.

Conclusions: The nomograms effectively predicted metastasis risk and OS in metastatic SRCC patients, offering clinical utility in stratifying patients and guiding treatment decisions, thereby enhancing personalized treatment approaches.