Predictors and Profile of Severe Infectious Complications in Multiple Myeloma Patients Treated with Daratumumab-Based Regimens: A Machine Learning Model for Pneumonia Risk.

Abstract

Background: Daratumumab (Dara) is the first monoclonal antibody introduced into clinical practice to treat multiple myeloma (MM). It currently forms the backbone of therapy regimens in both newly diagnosed (ND) and relapsed/refractory (RR) patients. However, previous reports indicated an increased risk of infectious complications (ICs) during Dara-based treatment. In this study, we aimed to determine the profile of ICs in MM patients treated with Dara-based regimens and establish predictors of their occurrence.

Methods: This retrospective, real-life study included MM patients treated with Dara-based regimens between July 2019 and March 2024 at our institution. Infectious events were evaluated using the Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events (CTCAE) version 5.0.

Results: The study group consisted of a total of 139 patients, including 49 NDMM and 90 RRMM. In the RR setting, the majority (60.0%) of patients received the Dara, bortezomib, and dexamethasone (DVd) regimen, whereas ND patients were predominantly (98%) treated with the Dara, bortezomib, thalidomide, and dexamethasone (DVTd) regimen. Overall, 55 patients (39.6%) experienced ICs. The most common IC was pneumonia (37.5%), followed by upper respiratory tract infections (26.8%). Finally, twenty-five patients had severe ICs (grade ≥ 3) and required hospitalization, and eight patients died due to ICs. In the final multivariable model adjusted for setting (ND/RR) and age, hemoglobin level (OR 0.77, 95% CI: 0.61-0.96, p = 0.0037), and Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) >1 (OR 4.46, 95% CI: 1.63-12.26, p = 0.0037) were significant factors influencing severe IC occurrence. Additionally, we developed predictive models using the J48 decision tree, gradient boosting, and random forest algorithms. After conducting 10-fold cross-validation, these models demonstrated strong performance in predicting the occurrence of pneumonia during treatment with daratumumab-based regimens.

Conclusions: Simple clinical and laboratory assessments, including hemoglobin level and ECOG scale, can be valuable in identifying patients vulnerable to infections during Dara-based regimens, facilitating personalized prophylactic strategies.