Effect of land use and land cover changes on land surface warming in an intensive agricultural region.

Abstract

Deforestation and alterations in land use are key factors contributing to rises in both local and global temperatures. However, the effect of these alterations on land surface temperature (LST) remains understudied in many areas that have experienced significant changes in land use. To address this gap, a spatial and temporal evaluation of land use and land cover (LULC) was performed to identify potential changes in LST using satellite imagery and statistical analysis. This study focused on the central and northern zones of Sinaloa, Mexico, an agriculturally important region where cultivated land has expanded in recent years, covering the period from 1993 to 2017. The results demonstrated that the study area exhibited an increase in LST over time, which was strongly linked to the expansion of agricultural land. The least-squares method also demonstrated warming trends in both the winter and summer seasons. An increasing rate of 0.1672 °C/year was found in winter, while a LST value of 0.1176 °C/year was found in summer. Warming areas were identified in the foothill regions and an increase in LST in mountain ranges was observed, where a loss of low deciduous forest cover was detected.