Trends in the incidence of young-adult-onset diabetes by diabetes type: a multi-national population-based study from an international diabetes consortium

IF 44 1区医学 Q1 ENDOCRINOLOGY & METABOLISM

The Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology Pub Date : 2024-11-11 DOI:10.1016/s2213-8587(24)00243-2

Dianna J Magliano, Lei Chen, Jedidiah I Morton, Agus Salim, Bendix Carstensen, Edward W Gregg, Meda E Pavkov, Martti Arffman, Helen M Colhoun, Kyoung Hwa Ha, Tomoaki Imamura, György Jermendy, Dae Jung Kim, Zoltán Kiss, Didac Mauricio, Stuart J McGurnaghan, Yuichi Nishioka, Sarah H Wild, Klas Winell, Jonathan E Shaw

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Abstract

Background

Population-based incidence data on young-adult-onset type 1 diabetes and type 2 diabetes are limited. We aimed to examine secular trends in the incidence of diagnosed type 1 diabetes and type 2 diabetes with an age of onset between 15 and 39 years.

Methods

In this multicountry aggregate data analysis, we assembled eight administrative datasets from high-income jurisdictions and countries (Australia, Denmark, Finland, Hungary, Japan, Scotland, South Korea, and Spain [Catalonia]) that had appropriate data available from an international diabetes consortium (GLOBODIAB) describing incidence by diabetes type among people aged 15–39 years from 2000 to 2020. We modelled type 1 diabetes and type 2 diabetes incidence rates using Poisson regression including age and calendar time by sex.

Findings

During the years 2000–20, there were 349 591 incident diabetes (both types) cases from 346 million person-years of follow-up among people aged 15–39 years. Over time, there was no statistically significant change in the incidence of type 1 diabetes in Hungary and Japan. The incidence of type 1 diabetes significantly increased in Australia, Denmark, Finland, Scotland, South Korea, and Spain, with annual changes ranging from 0·5% to 6·0%. The incidence of type 2 diabetes significantly increased in four of eight jurisdictions (Denmark, Finland, Japan, and South Korea), with annual increases from 2·0% to 8·5%. The magnitude of increase in incidence of type 2 diabetes was greater in Asian than non-Asian jurisdictions. There was no statistically significant change in type 2 diabetes incidence in Australia and Hungary. The incidence of type 2 diabetes significantly decreased in Scotland and Spain, with annual changes of –0·7% and –1·5%, respectively.

Interpretation

There is variability in the trajectory of the incidence of young-adult-onset type 2 diabetes among high-income countries or jurisdictions, with a greater evidence of increase in Asian than non-Asian countries. Evolving trends in the incidence of type 1 and type 2 diabetes in young adults call for the ongoing surveillance of diabetes incidence and a greater research focus on this population.

Funding

US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Diabetes Australia Research Programme, and Victoria State Government Operational Infrastructure Support Programme.

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按糖尿病类型划分的年轻成人糖尿病发病率趋势：国际糖尿病联盟开展的一项基于人口的多国研究

背景基于人群的 1 型糖尿病和 2 型糖尿病发病率数据非常有限。在这项多国综合数据分析中，我们收集了来自高收入地区和国家（澳大利亚、丹麦、芬兰、匈牙利、日本、苏格兰、韩国和西班牙[加泰罗尼亚]）的八个行政数据集，这些数据集拥有国际糖尿病联盟（GLOBODIAB）提供的适当数据，描述了 2000 年至 2020 年期间 15-39 岁人群中各糖尿病类型的发病率。我们使用泊松回归法（包括按性别划分的年龄和日历时间）对 1 型糖尿病和 2 型糖尿病发病率进行了建模。研究结果2000-20 年间，在对 3.46 亿人年的跟踪调查中，15-39 岁人群中共有 349 591 例糖尿病（两种类型）病例。随着时间的推移，匈牙利和日本的 1 型糖尿病发病率没有明显的统计学变化。澳大利亚、丹麦、芬兰、苏格兰、韩国和西班牙的 1 型糖尿病发病率明显上升，年变化率从 0-5% 到 6-0% 不等。在八个辖区中，有四个辖区（丹麦、芬兰、日本和韩国）的 2 型糖尿病发病率明显增加，年增幅从 2-0% 到 8-5%不等。亚洲辖区 2 型糖尿病发病率的增长幅度大于非亚洲辖区。澳大利亚和匈牙利的 2 型糖尿病发病率在统计上没有明显变化。苏格兰和西班牙的2型糖尿病发病率明显下降，年变化率分别为-0-7%和-1-5%。解释：在高收入国家或辖区中，青年-成人2型糖尿病发病率的变化轨迹各不相同，亚洲国家的发病率上升幅度大于非亚洲国家。青壮年1型和2型糖尿病发病率的变化趋势要求对糖尿病发病率进行持续监测，并加强对这一人群的研究。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

The Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology ENDOCRINOLOGY & METABOLISM-

CiteScore

61.50

自引率

1.60%

发文量

371

期刊介绍： The Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology, an independent journal with a global perspective and strong clinical focus, features original clinical research, expert reviews, news, and opinion pieces in each monthly issue. Covering topics like diabetes, obesity, nutrition, and more, the journal provides insights into clinical advances and practice-changing research worldwide. It welcomes original research advocating change or shedding light on clinical practice, as well as informative reviews on related topics, especially those with global health importance and relevance to low-income and middle-income countries. The journal publishes various content types, including Articles, Reviews, Comments, Correspondence, Health Policy, and Personal Views, along with Series and Commissions aiming to drive positive change in clinical practice and health policy in diabetes and endocrinology.