Validating and Updating the OHTS-EGPS Model Predicting 5-year Glaucoma Risk among Ocular Hypertension Patients Using Electronic Records

IF 2.8 Q1 OPHTHALMOLOGY
David M. Wright PhD , Augusto Azuara-Blanco PhD , Chris Cardwell PhD , Giovanni Montesano PhD , David P. Crabb PhD , Gus Gazzard MD , Anthony J. King MD , Rodolfo Hernández PhD , James E. Morgan DPhil , Bethany Higgins PhD , Yemisi Takwoingi PhD
{"title":"Validating and Updating the OHTS-EGPS Model Predicting 5-year Glaucoma Risk among Ocular Hypertension Patients Using Electronic Records","authors":"David M. Wright PhD ,&nbsp;Augusto Azuara-Blanco PhD ,&nbsp;Chris Cardwell PhD ,&nbsp;Giovanni Montesano PhD ,&nbsp;David P. Crabb PhD ,&nbsp;Gus Gazzard MD ,&nbsp;Anthony J. King MD ,&nbsp;Rodolfo Hernández PhD ,&nbsp;James E. Morgan DPhil ,&nbsp;Bethany Higgins PhD ,&nbsp;Yemisi Takwoingi PhD","doi":"10.1016/j.ogla.2024.10.009","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Objective</h3><div>To validate and update the Ocular Hypertension Treatment Study-European Glaucoma Prevention Study (OHTS-EGPS) model predicting risk of conversion from ocular hypertension (OHT) to glaucoma using electronic medical records (EMR).</div></div><div><h3>Design</h3><div>Evaluation and update of a risk prediction algorithm using EMRs and linked visual field (VF) tests.</div></div><div><h3>Participants</h3><div>Newly diagnosed OHT patients attending hospital glaucoma services in England. Inclusion criteria are as follows: intraocular pressure (IOP) 22 to 32 mmHg (either eye); normal baseline VF test, defined as Glaucoma Hemifield Test (GHT) “within normal range” in a reliable VF test; at least 2 VF tests in total; no significant ocular comorbidities.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>Risk factors are as follows: age, ethnicity, sex, IOP, vertical cup-to-disc ratio, central corneal thickness, VF pattern standard deviation, family history of glaucoma, systemic hypertension, diabetes mellitus, and glaucoma treatment. Glaucoma conversion was defined as 2 consecutive and reliable VF tests with GHT “outside normal limits” and/or need for glaucoma surgery. For validation, the OHTS-EGPS model was applied to predict a patient’s risk of developing glaucoma in 5 years. In the updating stage, the OHTS model was refitted by re-estimating the baseline hazard and regression coefficients. The updated model was cross-validated and several variants were explored.</div></div><div><h3>Main Outcome Measures</h3><div>Measures of discriminative ability (c-index) and calibration (calibration slope) were calculated and pooled across hospitals using random effects meta-analysis.</div></div><div><h3>Results</h3><div>From a total of 138 461 patients from 10 hospital glaucoma services in England, 9030 patients with OHT fitted the inclusion criteria. A total of 1530 (16.9%) patients converted to glaucoma during this follow-up period. The OHTS-EGPS model provided a pooled c-index of 0.61 (95% confidence interval: 0.60–0.63), ranging from 0.55 to 0.67 between hospitals. The pooled calibration slope was 0.45 (0.38–0.51), ranging from 0.25 to 0.64 among hospitals. The overall refitted model performed better than the OHTS-EGPS model, with a pooled c-index of 0.67 (0.65–0.69), ranging from 0.65 to 0.75 between hospitals.</div></div><div><h3>Conclusions</h3><div>We performed an external validation of the OHTS-EGPS model in a large English population. Refitting the model achieved modest improvements in performance. Given the poor performance of the OHTS-EGPS model in our population, one should use caution in its application to populations that differ from those in the OHTS and EGPS.</div></div><div><h3>Financial Disclosure(s)</h3><div>Proprietary or commercial disclosure may be found in the Footnotes and Disclosures at the end of this article.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":19519,"journal":{"name":"Ophthalmology. Glaucoma","volume":"8 2","pages":"Pages 143-151"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8000,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Ophthalmology. Glaucoma","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S258941962400187X","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"OPHTHALMOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0

Abstract

Objective

To validate and update the Ocular Hypertension Treatment Study-European Glaucoma Prevention Study (OHTS-EGPS) model predicting risk of conversion from ocular hypertension (OHT) to glaucoma using electronic medical records (EMR).

Design

Evaluation and update of a risk prediction algorithm using EMRs and linked visual field (VF) tests.

Participants

Newly diagnosed OHT patients attending hospital glaucoma services in England. Inclusion criteria are as follows: intraocular pressure (IOP) 22 to 32 mmHg (either eye); normal baseline VF test, defined as Glaucoma Hemifield Test (GHT) “within normal range” in a reliable VF test; at least 2 VF tests in total; no significant ocular comorbidities.

Methods

Risk factors are as follows: age, ethnicity, sex, IOP, vertical cup-to-disc ratio, central corneal thickness, VF pattern standard deviation, family history of glaucoma, systemic hypertension, diabetes mellitus, and glaucoma treatment. Glaucoma conversion was defined as 2 consecutive and reliable VF tests with GHT “outside normal limits” and/or need for glaucoma surgery. For validation, the OHTS-EGPS model was applied to predict a patient’s risk of developing glaucoma in 5 years. In the updating stage, the OHTS model was refitted by re-estimating the baseline hazard and regression coefficients. The updated model was cross-validated and several variants were explored.

Main Outcome Measures

Measures of discriminative ability (c-index) and calibration (calibration slope) were calculated and pooled across hospitals using random effects meta-analysis.

Results

From a total of 138 461 patients from 10 hospital glaucoma services in England, 9030 patients with OHT fitted the inclusion criteria. A total of 1530 (16.9%) patients converted to glaucoma during this follow-up period. The OHTS-EGPS model provided a pooled c-index of 0.61 (95% confidence interval: 0.60–0.63), ranging from 0.55 to 0.67 between hospitals. The pooled calibration slope was 0.45 (0.38–0.51), ranging from 0.25 to 0.64 among hospitals. The overall refitted model performed better than the OHTS-EGPS model, with a pooled c-index of 0.67 (0.65–0.69), ranging from 0.65 to 0.75 between hospitals.

Conclusions

We performed an external validation of the OHTS-EGPS model in a large English population. Refitting the model achieved modest improvements in performance. Given the poor performance of the OHTS-EGPS model in our population, one should use caution in its application to populations that differ from those in the OHTS and EGPS.

Financial Disclosure(s)

Proprietary or commercial disclosure may be found in the Footnotes and Disclosures at the end of this article.
利用电子记录验证和更新预测眼压病患者 5 年青光眼风险的 OHTS-EGPS 模型。
目的利用电子病历(EMR)验证和更新OHTS-EGPS模型,预测由OHT转变为青光眼的风险:设计:利用电子病历和相关视野(VF)测试对风险预测算法进行评估和更新:纳入标准:眼压 22-32 mmHg:纳入标准:眼压 22-32 mmHg(任一眼);正常基线视野测试,即在可靠的视野测试中青光眼半视野测试(GHT)"在正常范围内";总共至少进行两次视野测试;无重大眼部并发症:危险因素:年龄、种族、性别、眼压、垂直杯盘比、中心角膜厚度、VF模式标准偏差、青光眼家族史、全身性高血压、糖尿病、青光眼治疗。青光眼转换的定义是连续两次可靠的 VF 测试,GHT "超出正常范围 "和/或需要进行青光眼手术。在验证阶段,采用 OHTS-EGPS 模型预测患者 5 年内患青光眼的风险。在更新阶段,通过重新估计基线危险系数和回归系数来重新拟合 OHTS 模型。对更新后的模型进行了交叉验证,并探讨了几种变体:采用随机效应荟萃分析法计算并汇总各医院的判别能力(c-指数)和校准(校准斜率):来自英格兰十家医院青光眼服务部门的 138,461 名患者中,有 9030 名 OHT 患者符合纳入标准。在随访期间,共有 1530 名(16.9%)患者转为青光眼。OHTS-EGPS模型的集合c指数为0.61(95%置信区间:0.60,0.63),各医院之间的c指数从0.55到0.67不等。汇总校准斜率为 0.45 (0.38, 0.51),各医院之间的斜率范围为 0.25 至 0.64。重新拟合的模型总体表现优于 OHTS-EGPS 模型,汇总 c 指数为 0.67 (0.65, 0.69),各医院之间为 0.65 至 0.75:结论:我们在大量英国人口中对 OHTS-EGPS 模型进行了外部验证。重新拟合模型可适度提高性能。鉴于 OHTS-EGPS 模型在我们的人群中表现不佳,因此在应用于不同于 OHTS 和 EGPS 的人群时应谨慎。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
求助全文
约1分钟内获得全文 求助全文
来源期刊
Ophthalmology. Glaucoma
Ophthalmology. Glaucoma OPHTHALMOLOGY-
CiteScore
4.80
自引率
6.90%
发文量
140
审稿时长
46 days
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
确定
请完成安全验证×
copy
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
右上角分享
点击右上角分享
0
联系我们:info@booksci.cn Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。 Copyright © 2023 布克学术 All rights reserved.
京ICP备2023020795号-1
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术官方微信