Assessing the validity of METS-IR for predicting the future onset of diabetes: an analysis using time-dependent receiver operating characteristics.

IF 2.8 3区 医学 Q3 ENDOCRINOLOGY & METABOLISM
Jiajun Qiu, Shiming He, Changhui Yu, Ruijuan Yang, Maobin Kuang, Guotai Sheng, Yang Zou
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Abstract

Background: The Metabolic Insulin Resistance Score (METS-IR) is a non-invasive proxy for insulin resistance (IR) that has been newly developed in recent years and has been shown to be associated with diabetes risk. Our aim was to assess the predictive value of METS-IR for the future development of diabetes and its temporal differences in people of different sex, age, and body mass index (BMI).

Methods: The current study included 15,453 baseline non-diabetic subjects in the NAGALA cohort and then grouped according to the World Health Organization's (WHO) recommended criteria for age and BMI. Multivariate Cox regression and time-dependent receiver operator characteristics (ROC) curves were used to analyze the value of METS-IR in assessing and predicting the risk of diabetes in people of different sexes, ages, and BMIs.

Results: 373 individuals developed diabetes during the observation period. By multivariate COX regression analysis, the development of future diabetes was significantly associated with increased METS-IR, and this positive association was stronger in women than in men and in individuals < 45 years than in individuals ≥ 45 years; while no significant differences were observed between non-obese and overweight/obesity individuals. Using time-dependent ROC analysis we also assessed the predictive value of METS-IR for future diabetes at a total of 11-time points between 2 and 12 years. The results showed that METS-IR had a higher predictive value for the future development of diabetes in women or individuals < 45 years of age compared to men or individuals ≥ 45 years of age for almost the entire follow-up period. Furthermore, across different BMI categories, we also found that in the short term (3-5 years), METS-IR had a higher predictive value for the development of diabetes in individuals with overweight/obesity, while in the medium to long term (6-12 years), METS-IR was more accurate in predicting the development of diabetes in non-obese individuals.

Conclusions: Our study showed that METS-IR was independently associated with the development of future diabetes in a non-diabetic population. METS-IR was a good predictor of diabetes, especially for women and individuals < 45 years old for predicting the future risk of developing diabetes at all times.

评估 METS-IR 预测未来糖尿病发病的有效性:使用时间依赖性接收器操作特征进行分析。
背景:代谢胰岛素抵抗评分(METS-IR)是近年来新开发的胰岛素抵抗(IR)的无创替代指标,已被证明与糖尿病风险有关。我们的目的是评估 METS-IR 对未来糖尿病发展的预测价值及其在不同性别、年龄和体重指数(BMI)人群中的时间差异:本研究纳入了 NAGALA 队列中的 15,453 名基线非糖尿病受试者,然后根据世界卫生组织(WHO)推荐的年龄和体重指数标准进行分组。采用多变量 Cox 回归和时间依赖性接收器运算特性曲线(ROC)来分析 METS-IR 在评估和预测不同性别、年龄和体重指数人群罹患糖尿病风险方面的价值:结果:观察期间有 373 人罹患糖尿病。通过多变量 COX 回归分析,未来糖尿病的发生与 METS-IR 的增加显著相关,而且这种正相关性在女性和个体中均强于男性:我们的研究表明,在非糖尿病人群中,METS-IR 与未来糖尿病的发生有独立关联。METS-IR 是糖尿病的良好预测指标,尤其是对女性和个体而言。
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来源期刊
BMC Endocrine Disorders
BMC Endocrine Disorders ENDOCRINOLOGY & METABOLISM-
CiteScore
4.40
自引率
0.00%
发文量
280
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: BMC Endocrine Disorders is an open access, peer-reviewed journal that considers articles on all aspects of the prevention, diagnosis and management of endocrine disorders, as well as related molecular genetics, pathophysiology, and epidemiology.
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