Modulation of Pacific decadal oscillation on the relationship between El Niño–Southern Oscillation and rainy season onset over the Indo-China Peninsula

IF 3.5 3区 地球科学 Q2 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
Fen Wang, Xian Luo, Siyu Li, Xinqu Wu
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Abstract

Monsoon precipitation variability over the Indo-China Peninsula (ICP) has become more complicated affected by global warming. In this study, the modulation of Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) on the relationship between El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the rainy season onset over the ICP were investigated. The results showed that the ICP rainy season onset were predominantly correlated with winter sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in the East Pacific Ocean, with late and early onsets following El Niño and La Niña events, respectively. During the warm and cold PDO phase, the correlations tended to be substantially strengthened and weakened, respectively. Further analysis indicates that PDO significantly influenced the effects of ENSO on the ICP rainy season onset by modulating SSTAs and low-level wind fields. During the El Niño events, abnormal easterlies over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) and southern ICP suppressed water vapour transporting to the ICP, which may be related to the zonal SST anomaly gradient between the Indian Ocean and the Northwest Pacific Ocean. When the El Niño occurred during the warm PDO phase, the rainy season onsets were later. The anomalous easterlies became stronger corresponds to the increasing zonal sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) gradient between the Indian Ocean and the Northwest Pacific Ocean. There was no significant anomaly on the rainy season onset during the cold PDO phase. During the La Niña events, the abnormal westerlies in BOB accelerated water vapour transport, and the rainy season onset were earlier during the warm and cold PDO phase. The modulating effects of PDO on La Niña were less than those on El Niño. These results suggest that the predictability of rainy season onset over the ICP can be improved through PDO and thus help agricultural planning and water resources management.

Abstract Image

太平洋十年涛动对厄尔尼诺-南方涛动与印度-中南半岛雨季来临之间关系的影响
受全球变暖的影响,中印半岛季风降水变率变得更加复杂。本研究探讨了太平洋十年涛动(PDO)对厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)与 ICP 雨季来临之间关系的影响。结果表明,国际比较方案雨季的开始主要与东太平洋冬季海面温度异常相关,厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜事件分别导致雨季开始的晚期和早期。在温暖和寒冷的 PDO 阶段,相关性分别有大幅增强和减弱的趋势。进一步的分析表明,PDO 通过调节 SSTA 和低空风场,对 ENSO 对 ICP 雨季开始的影响产生了显著影响。在厄尔尼诺现象期间,孟加拉湾和ICP南部上空的异常东风抑制了水汽向ICP的输送,这可能与印度洋和西北太平洋之间的带状海温异常梯度有关。当厄尔尼诺现象发生在 PDO 暖阶段时,雨季开始的时间较晚。异常东风变得更强与印度洋和西北太平洋之间的地带性海面温度异常梯度增大相对应。在寒冷的 PDO 阶段,雨季的开始没有明显的异常。在拉尼娜事件期间,BOB 的异常西风加速了水汽输送,在 PDO 暖期和冷期,雨季开始时间提前。PDO 对拉尼娜现象的调节作用小于对厄尔尼诺现象的调节作用。这些结果表明,可以通过 PDO 提高国际比较方案雨季来临的可预测性,从而有助于农业规划和水资源管理。
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来源期刊
International Journal of Climatology
International Journal of Climatology 地学-气象与大气科学
CiteScore
7.50
自引率
7.70%
发文量
417
审稿时长
4 months
期刊介绍: The International Journal of Climatology aims to span the well established but rapidly growing field of climatology, through the publication of research papers, short communications, major reviews of progress and reviews of new books and reports in the area of climate science. The Journal’s main role is to stimulate and report research in climatology, from the expansive fields of the atmospheric, biophysical, engineering and social sciences. Coverage includes: Climate system science; Local to global scale climate observations and modelling; Seasonal to interannual climate prediction; Climatic variability and climate change; Synoptic, dynamic and urban climatology, hydroclimatology, human bioclimatology, ecoclimatology, dendroclimatology, palaeoclimatology, marine climatology and atmosphere-ocean interactions; Application of climatological knowledge to environmental assessment and management and economic production; Climate and society interactions
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