A comparative analysis of temperature trends at Modena Geophysical Observatory and Mount Cimone Observatory, Italy

IF 3.5 3区 地球科学 Q2 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
Sofia Costanzini, Mauro Boccolari, Stephanie Vega Parra, Francesca Despini, Luca Lombroso, Sergio Teggi
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Abstract

Global warming has become a critical environmental, social, and economic threat, with increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. This study aims to analyse temperature trends and climate indices in the Po Valley, a significant economic and agricultural region in Italy, by examining data from two historical stations: the urban Modena Observatory and the rural Mount Cimone Observatory. The analysis extends previous studies to 2018, assessing the magnitude of climate changes since the 1950s and isolating the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect in Modena. Significant warming trends were confirmed at both sites, with in maximum (TX) and minimum (TN) temperatures trends nearly doubling from 1981 to 2018 compared to 1951–2018. For example, TX trends reached 0.84°C·decade−1 in Modena and 0.62°C·decade−1 at Mount Cimone, while TN trends were 0.77 and 0.80°C·decade−1, respectively. Extreme climate indices showed a substantial increase in warm days and nights (TX90p and TN90p, respectively). Particularly we found TX90p of 27.5 days·decade−1 in Modena and 15 days·decade−1 at Mount Cimone while TN90p of 29.5 days·decade−1 in Modena, 22 days·decade−1 at Mount Cimone. The UHI effect significantly impacts Modena's temperature trends. Urbanization contributes up to 65% of the rise in warm nights. Specifically, frost days decreased by 1.88 days·decade−1 (37% of Urban Contribute, UC), tropical nights increased by 5.16 days·decade−1 (57% UC), warm nights increased by 12.7 days·decade−1 (65% UC), and cool nights decreased by 3.19 days·decade−1 (39% UC). Overall, the study underscores the importance of considering both global and local factors in regional climate trend analysis.

Abstract Image

意大利摩德纳地球物理观测站和西蒙尼山观测站的气温趋势对比分析
随着极端天气事件发生的频率和强度不断增加,全球变暖已成为一个严重的环境、社会和经济威胁。本研究旨在通过研究两个历史观测站(城市摩德纳观测站和乡村西蒙尼山观测站)的数据,分析意大利重要经济和农业地区波河流域的气温趋势和气候指数。该分析将之前的研究延伸至 2018 年,评估了自 20 世纪 50 年代以来的气候变化幅度,并隔离了摩德纳的城市热岛效应(UHI)。两个观测点都证实了显著的变暖趋势,与1951-2018年相比,1981-2018年的最高气温(TX)和最低气温(TN)趋势几乎翻了一番。例如,摩德纳的TX趋势达到0.84°C-十年-1,西莫内山为0.62°C-十年-1,而TN趋势分别为0.77和0.80°C-十年-1。极端气候指数(TX90p 和 TN90p)显示温暖的白天和夜晚大幅增加。特别是,我们发现摩德纳的 TX90p 为 27.5 天-十年-1,西蒙尼山为 15 天-十年-1,而摩德纳的 TN90p 为 29.5 天-十年-1,西蒙尼山为 22 天-十年-1。UHI 效应严重影响了摩德纳的气温变化趋势。城市化导致暖夜上升的比例高达 65%。具体来说,霜冻日减少了 1.88 天-十年-1(占城市贡献的 37%),热带夜晚增加了 5.16 天-十年-1(占城市贡献的 57%),温暖夜晚增加了 12.7 天-十年-1(占城市贡献的 65%),凉爽夜晚减少了 3.19 天-十年-1(占城市贡献的 39%)。总之,该研究强调了在区域气候趋势分析中同时考虑全球和地方因素的重要性。
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来源期刊
International Journal of Climatology
International Journal of Climatology 地学-气象与大气科学
CiteScore
7.50
自引率
7.70%
发文量
417
审稿时长
4 months
期刊介绍: The International Journal of Climatology aims to span the well established but rapidly growing field of climatology, through the publication of research papers, short communications, major reviews of progress and reviews of new books and reports in the area of climate science. The Journal’s main role is to stimulate and report research in climatology, from the expansive fields of the atmospheric, biophysical, engineering and social sciences. Coverage includes: Climate system science; Local to global scale climate observations and modelling; Seasonal to interannual climate prediction; Climatic variability and climate change; Synoptic, dynamic and urban climatology, hydroclimatology, human bioclimatology, ecoclimatology, dendroclimatology, palaeoclimatology, marine climatology and atmosphere-ocean interactions; Application of climatological knowledge to environmental assessment and management and economic production; Climate and society interactions
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